Duke Energy (DUK)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$121.47+2.18%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Duke Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.17 → 7.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
5% to 7% adjusted EPS growth through 2030	A primary condition in Duke Energy's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 7% annual adjusted EPS growth.	Under Pressure	adjusted EPS growth falls below 5% annually through 2030	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and a long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030 off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30. Adjusted EPS grew from $6.31 in 2025 to guidance range for 2026, showing the company is delivering on this growth trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain affordable energy rates below national average and inflation	The company keeps energy rates affordable for customers.	Intact	energy rates rise above inflation or national average	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently emphasizes maintaining affordable energy rates below national averages and inflation. While no direct rate figures are provided, the recurring focus and operational results support ongoing efforts to control costs and deliver value to customers, indicating steady progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
$103 billion five-year capital investment plan	It has a $103 billion five-year capital plan to modernize infrastructure.	Intact	capital plan execution stalls or spending falls well below $103 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. The $103 billion five-year capital plan was emphasized in 2025-Q4 and referenced in subsequent quarters as driving earnings growth and infrastructure modernization. The plan supports the company's growth strategy and is being actively executed, indicating delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage capital structure with convertible notes and refinancing	A supporting condition in Duke Energy's published investment case. The stated target is maintain debt issuance and refinancing as planned.	Intact	capital structure management fails or liquidity weakens	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q3 via 8-K exhibit. Duke Energy completed a debt issuance on August 13, 2026, indicating active management of capital structure. No prior quarters in the supplied data mention this, so this is a recent priority with initial execution. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.17

$7.17 → $7.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$35.14B

$35.04B → $35.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.17	$35,039,607,416	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$7.17	$35,280,178,900	22 / 17
2026-07-26	$7.17	$35,280,178,900	22 / 17
2026-07-27	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-07-28	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-07-29	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-07-30	$7.17	$35,090,536,087	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$7.17	$35,090,536,087	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$7.17	$35,090,536,087	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-08-03	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-08-04	$7.17	$35,090,536,087	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-08-06	$7.17	$35,280,061,250	22 / 17
2026-08-07	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-08	$7.17	$35,271,043,990	22 / 17
2026-08-09	$7.17	$35,271,043,990	22 / 17
2026-08-10	$7.17	$35,271,043,990	22 / 17
2026-08-11	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-13	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-15	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-16	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-17	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-18	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-19	$7.17	$35,079,649,853	14 / 13
2026-08-20	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-21	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-22	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-23	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-24	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-25	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-26	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-27	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-28	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-29	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-30	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-08-31	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-01	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-02	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-03	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-04	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-05	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-06	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-07	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-08	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-09	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-10	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-11	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-12	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-13	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-14	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-15	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-16	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-17	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-18	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-19	$7.17	$35,147,389,854	13 / 12
2026-09-20	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-21	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-22	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-23	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-24	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-25	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-26	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-27	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-28	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-29	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-09-30	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-01	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-02	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-03	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-04	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-05	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-06	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-07	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-08	$7.17	$35,155,426,753	13 / 12
2026-10-09	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-10	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-11	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-12	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-13	$7.17	$35,155,393,420	13 / 12
2026-10-14	$7.17	$35,154,214,753	13 / 12
2026-10-15	$7.17	$35,142,388,873	13 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	13
2026-06-01	11	13
2026-07-01	11	13
2026-08-01	11	12
2026-09-01	12	11
2026-10-01	12	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 13 · prior Jul 23

$139.00 → $128.00-7.9%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Aug 17

$135.00 → $130.00-3.7%

JefferiesOct 12

$121.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 5

$132.00 → $124.00-6.1%

Morgan StanleySep 18 · prior Jul 22

$138.00 → $127.00-8.0%

$0$76.45$152.90

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

5% to 7% adjusted EPS growth through 2030Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain affordable energy rates below national average and inflationQualitative condition
$103 billion five-year capital investment planDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage capital structure with convertible notes and refinancingQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Duke Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable utility with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by management's commitment to earnings growth and a significant capital investment plan.

What's priced into Duke Energy

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, indicating expectations of steady performance. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic about DUK's future.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its adjusted EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2030. Recent financial performance has been stable, although there is a low probability of missing guidance, which could impact sentiment.

What Duke Energy hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the performance of sector peers. Any negative guidance from DUK could significantly affect market perceptions.