Dollar Tree (DLTR)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-15

$124.18-0.18%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dollar Tree’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.90 → 7.89 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $2.5 billion share buyback authorization	The company announced a $2.5 billion share buyback, showing strong capital return.	Intact	Buyback authorization is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%	A primary condition in Dollar Tree's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 4% growth.	Under Pressure	Comparable store sales growth falls below 3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Comparable store net sales growth was 3.5% in 2026-Q1 and 3.7% in 2026-Q2, consistent with management's 3%-4% target. The trajectory shows delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026	A primary condition in Dollar Tree's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $6.7 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20262.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4e672a82-2ae7-42b0-bf63-e16f1ee7274b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS outlook increased from $6.50-$6.90 in 2026-Q1 to $7.70-$8.05 in 2026-Q3. Actual diluted EPS grew from $1.76 in 2026-Q1 to $2.70 in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on EPS growth guidance with improving quarterly results. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.89

$7.69 → $7.89 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$21.92B

$21.86B → $21.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.69	$21,856,834,425	17 / 15
2026-07-25	$7.69	$21,856,834,425	17 / 15
2026-07-26	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-07-27	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-07-28	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-07-29	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-07-30	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-07-31	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-01	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-02	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-03	$7.70	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-04	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-05	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-06	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-07	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-08	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-09	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-10	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-11	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-12	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-13	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-14	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-15	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 15
2026-08-16	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 16
2026-08-17	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 16
2026-08-18	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 16
2026-08-19	$7.71	$21,845,347,802	17 / 16
2026-08-20	$7.76	$21,868,291,754	17 / 16
2026-08-21	$7.76	$21,868,291,754	17 / 15
2026-08-22	$7.77	$21,870,239,754	17 / 16
2026-08-23	$7.77	$21,870,239,754	17 / 16
2026-08-24	$7.77	$21,870,239,754	17 / 16
2026-08-25	$7.78	$21,869,527,754	17 / 16
2026-08-26	$7.78	$21,865,656,011	17 / 16
2026-08-27	$7.78	$21,865,656,011	17 / 16
2026-08-28	$7.78	$21,865,656,011	17 / 16
2026-08-29	$7.91	$21,911,890,308	18 / 16
2026-08-30	$7.91	$21,911,890,308	18 / 16
2026-08-31	$7.92	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-01	$7.92	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-02	$7.92	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-03	$7.92	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-04	$7.92	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-05	$7.90	$21,913,463,385	18 / 16
2026-09-06	$7.90	$21,921,801,920	18 / 16
2026-09-07	$7.90	$21,921,801,920	18 / 16
2026-09-08	$7.90	$21,921,801,920	18 / 16
2026-09-09	$7.90	$21,921,801,920	18 / 16
2026-09-10	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	18 / 16
2026-09-11	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-12	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-13	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-14	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-15	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-16	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-17	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-18	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-19	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-20	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-21	$7.90	$21,921,817,920	17 / 16
2026-09-22	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-23	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-24	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-25	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-26	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-27	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-28	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-29	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-09-30	$7.90	$21,921,989,920	17 / 16
2026-10-01	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-02	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-03	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-04	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-05	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-06	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-07	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	17 / 16
2026-10-08	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 16
2026-10-09	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-10	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-11	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-12	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-13	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-14	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17
2026-10-15	$7.89	$21,917,366,795	18 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	12	6
2026-06-01	10	13	6
2026-07-01	11	13	5
2026-08-01	11	15	5
2026-09-01	10	15	3
2026-10-01	11	15	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Loop Capital MarketsOct 1

$140.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 29 · prior May 18

$140.00 → $135.00-3.6%

$0$77.00$154.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $2.5 billion share buyback authorizationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve EPS of $6.70 to $7.10 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dollar Tree outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Dollar Tree

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that while the company is performing well, there is room for improvement in execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, as management is on track to meet its earnings and sales growth targets. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent declines in company momentum and a history of earnings surprises trending down.

What Dollar Tree hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of economic conditions like job growth, and potential inflationary pressures that could benefit the sector. Any significant changes in these areas could affect the company's credibility and performance.