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Diversified Energy Co. (DEC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$13.44-6.01%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that DEC's steady performance can benefit from favorable sector trends. Revenue growth is steady, but there is no recent earnings release to confirm this. DEC trades at a low valuation compared to peers, which implies a price about 68% above where it trades. The risk is that if DEC cuts guidance, the stock could decline. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Market cap
- $1.00B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2024-03-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.44. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$41.37
Range $33.06 – $38.60
vs price: -68% below
Method agreement : high · 6 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$45.41consensus
Range $32.86 – $45.63
vs price: -70% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$37.94consensus
Range $21.56 – $44.61
vs price: -65% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for DEC right now, so treat our $44 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-70%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$44.38
range $30.37 – $46.77
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
2.0xP/E · peer median 23.5x
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Compared to its own history
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=613).
14th pctl · Energy
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +33.8% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.47 (+33.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme oilfield-services.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,022.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The overall situation remains steady with no significant changes in performance or outlook. The sector backdrop continues to be a drag on the company.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for completion of the Camino asset deal.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal would boost DEC's assets and growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:A press release says that Camino assets are now part of DEC.
Disproves:There are delays or problems in the acquisition process.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DEC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims and energy demand.
- Watch for energy sector revenue growth to pick up above 5%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like XOM, CVX, and SHEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting DEC and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DEC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit DEC and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If DEC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like XOM, CVX, and SHEL start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping DEC and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-191mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 13, 2026, DP Red River LLC (the “Issuer”), a limited-purpose, bankruptcy-remote, wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Diversified Energy Company (the “Company”), issued in a private offering (the “Offering”) $850 million in aggregate principal amount of fixed-rate asset-backed securities, consisting of $590 million principal amount of 6.016% Class A-1 Notes due 2046 and $260 million in principal amount of 6.910% Class A-2 Notes due 2046 (collec…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.