Darling Ingredients (DAR)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.24+1.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Darling Ingredients’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.10 → 6.25 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$325M–$340Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.8B
EPS	—	1.832
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.86B
EPS	—	6.777
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.13B
EPS	—	6.245

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures remain near $400 million annually	A supporting condition in Darling Ingredients's published investment case. The stated target is ~400 million USD annual.	Intact	Capex exceeds $450 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $128.853M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~400 million USD annual. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026128,853,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit to sustain or exceed $404.9M quarterly	Gross profit improved by $93M in the last year.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $404.9M in any quarter	Gross profit: $503.373M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=404.9 million USD next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026503,373,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fcb61e6e-bb4e-4486-8254-7823ab9a1562. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to sustain or exceed $226.8M quarterly	Operating income rose from $28M to $227M in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $226.8M in any quarter	Operating income: $657.064M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=226.8 million USD next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026657,064,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 8% per year	A primary condition in Darling Ingredients's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.25

$4.90 → $6.25 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.13B

$6.94B → $7.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.90	$6,942,345,818	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$4.90	$6,942,345,818	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$5.07	$6,941,005,218	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$5.07	$6,941,005,218	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$5.07	$6,941,005,218	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$5.19	$6,942,145,218	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$5.26	$6,942,186,368	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.49	$7,034,356,857	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$5.49	$7,034,356,857	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.65	$7,074,715,707	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.90	$7,100,515,707	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.07	$7,122,244,869	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.10	$7,140,704,209	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.21	$7,127,404,209	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.19	$7,125,956,709	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.19	$7,125,956,709	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.11	$7,105,956,709	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.11	$7,105,956,709	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.11	$7,099,925,909	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$6.11	$7,099,925,909	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.11	$7,119,009,513	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.11	$7,119,009,513	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.11	$7,119,009,513	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$6.08	$7,124,429,513	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$6.08	$7,124,429,513	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$6.08	$7,124,429,513	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$6.08	$7,124,429,513	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$6.08	$7,124,429,513	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$6.11	$7,140,629,513	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$6.11	$7,140,629,513	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$6.28	$7,140,630,313	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$6.25	$7,126,346,709	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	0
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	11	1
2026-08-01	11	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 15 · prior Apr 21

$70.00 → $80.00+14.3%

Coker PalmerOct 12

$83.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$45.65$91.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures remain near $400 million annuallyCapital expenditures: $128.853M
Gross profit to sustain or exceed $404.9M quarterlyGross profit: $503.373M
Operating income growth to sustain or exceed $226.8M quarterlyOperating income: $657.064M
Revenue growth of at least 8% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Darling Ingredients outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DAR is a cyclical business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk has recently risen and management still has work to do on debt and capital spending.

What's priced into Darling Ingredients

The valuation evidence points to DAR being cheap versus peers, with the model rating confidence as high and priced-in fragility as low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not suggest that unusually high expectations are already built into the setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with recent earnings beats and management reporting progress on earnings growth and cash generation. Debt reduction is underway, but the latest reported net debt and leverage were still above year-end milestones, while the fiscal 2026 capital spending estimate rose. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic and a guidance cut remains a concern.

What Darling Ingredients hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on DAR maintaining guidance and continuing to generate cash while reducing debt. A weakening jobs report could raise recession concerns for cyclical names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the broader Consumer Staples backdrop.