Curtiss-Wright (CW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$565.34-1.29%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Curtiss-Wright grows revenue about 9% a year, driven by defense and nuclear markets. Profit margins stay strong near 19%. Free cash flow rises above $580 million. The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to about $15.1 per share.
High valuation with a PE of 55 times risks a correction. Soft guidance signals some near-term uncertainty. Margin expansion may stall if costs rise or demand slows.
The price is about 35% above our fair value near $568. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth and EPS around $15.2 in 2026. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median, reflecting caution on valuation.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $13.0 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $466 million in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 18.5% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CW represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's clear priorities and recent positive financial performance.
The market currently prices CW at a premium compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium despite some fragility in execution quality. Expectations are slightly negative, indicating that the market may be cautious about future performance.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and EPS growth targets, with recent results showing strong performance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, which could impact sentiment.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive earnings from these companies could bolster CW, while negative guidance could create headwinds.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Curtiss-Wright raised its 2026 sales guidance. This means investors expect higher sales than previously thought. The company also secured $40 million in new U.S. Army contracts. This indicates stronger demand and potential revenue growth. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.42 billion in FY26
Continue to grow sales across Aerospace & Defense and Commercial markets with mid-single digit to high single digit growth.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $805.6M in 2025-Q1 to $924.0M in 2026-Q2 (+15% over 6 quarters). Full-year 2026 sales growth guidance was raised from 7%-8% to 8%-9%. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated targets.
“Sales of $924 million increased 5% compared with the prior year period; total A&D market sales increased 6%, Commercial market sales increased 5%.”
“Reported sales of $914 million, up 13%, with sales guidance increased to new range of 7% to 8% growth.”
“Reported sales of $947 million, up 15%, with full-year 2026 outlook reflecting 6% to 8% organic sales growth.”
“Increased FY2026 sales guidance to 7% to 8% growth on strengthening Defense and Commercial Nuclear markets.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, CW's performance will depend on both its execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.