Curtiss-Wright (CW)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$464.94-1.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Curtiss-Wright’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

17.14 → 17.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	4.403
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.8B
EPS	—	15.355
Curtiss-Wright revenue growth	8%–9%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.11B
EPS	—	17.224

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches about $15.1 in FY26	The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to about $15.1 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $13.0 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.1 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20264.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 08d2abff-1cd7-48da-9691-8ee10299c565. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS guidance rose from $14.70-$15.15 in early 2026 to $15.10-$15.40, representing 14-16% growth over 2025's $13.23 adjusted EPS. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth aligned with management's target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow above $580 million in FY26	Free cash flow rises above $580 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $466 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $151.732M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $580 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026151,732,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 19% in FY26	A primary condition in Curtiss-Wright's published investment case. The stated target is >= 19.0%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 18.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 19.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 19.0%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202619.338685 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 08d2abff-1cd7-48da-9691-8ee10299c565. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $3.74 billion in FY26	Curtiss-Wright grows revenue about 9% a year, driven by defense and nuclear markets.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.42 billion in FY26	Revenue: $924.008M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.74 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026924,008,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 08d2abff-1cd7-48da-9691-8ee10299c565. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 sales growth guidance from 7-8% to 8-9%, reflecting broad market growth. Revenue grew from $3.5B in 2025 to a guided $3.74-$3.81B in 2026, showing delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$17.22

$17.09 → $17.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.11B

$4.09B → $4.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.09	$4,086,150,031	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$17.09	$4,086,150,031	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-02	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-05	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$17.11	$4,086,457,180	7 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-08	$17.14	$4,109,028,610	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$17.14	$4,109,028,610	7 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-11	$17.15	$4,111,771,460	7 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-13	$17.15	$4,111,771,460	7 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$4,086,150,031	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,108,788,521	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,110,052,456	4 / 6
2026-09-04	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$17.13	$4,109,957,739	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$17.14	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$17.15	$4,113,911,965	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$17.15	$4,113,623,827	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$17.15	$4,113,623,827	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$17.15	$4,113,323,827	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$17.19	$4,113,306,553	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$17.23	$4,113,306,553	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$17.22	$4,112,116,553	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$17.22	$4,112,438,317	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$17.22	$4,112,438,317	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$17.22	$4,112,438,317	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$17.22	$4,112,438,317	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	3
2026-06-01	5	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	6	3
2026-10-01	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Sep 2

$665.00 → $586.00-11.9%

Stifel NicolausOct 19 · prior Jul 20

$768.00 → $518.00-32.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 15

$860.00 → $625.00-27.3%

$0$473.00$946.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches about $15.1 in FY26Diluted EPS: $4.07 per share
Free cash flow above $580 million in FY26Free cash flow: $151.732M
Operating margin near 19% in FY26Operating margin: 19.34%
Revenue grows to about $3.74 billion in FY26Revenue: $924.008M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Curtiss-Wright outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CW is an execution-led industrial growth business, with management targeting higher revenue, mid-teens earnings growth, and wider margins. The multi-year view is intact, though earnings quality is fragile, management is volatile, and overall risk has recently moved to elevated.

What's priced into Curtiss-Wright

CW is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are ahead of the evidence in the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is still tagged as justified, with low fragility rather than a view that the full set of risks is reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been neutral overall, while management has raised 2026 sales and earnings guidance and margin progress has been on track. A possible guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk, especially given a history of misses; recent CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty.

What Curtiss-Wright hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management continuing to deliver its sales, earnings, and margin priorities through leadership changes. Near term, a guidance cut could weaken the case, while continued strength from industrial bellwethers such as SPCX, GE, and RTX could support the sector backdrop; weakness from those companies could remove that support.