Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CVRx, Inc. (CVRX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23
$1.42+3.65%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | — | 14.46M |
| EPS | — | -0.487 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 58.96M |
| EPS | — | -2.012 |
| Annual ending 2027-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 65.28M |
| EPS | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 86% for fiscal year 2026 | Gross margin should stay near 86%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 85% in FY26 | Gross margin: 87.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 85% and <= 87%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202687.386183 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e8d88578-5aa4-4953-ae77-79a0daddc258. Source status: eligible. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not a proven profitable compounder, since the evidence describes it as loss-making. Its multi-year view remains on watch after an earnings miss and weaker relative performance, while management’s expansion and margin priorities are progressing.
The valuation evidence points to CVRX being cheap versus peers, with low model confidence and an expectations gap that is slightly negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered, so the evidence does not show that the valuation rests on especially fragile expectations.
Near term, the next results carry meaningful risk: the estimated miss probability is 45%, and recent peer misses add to the concern. Over the multi-year view, U.S. revenue and active implanting centers have grown, gross margin has improved, and management has narrowed its operating expense guidance, though expenses have risen year over year.
The thesis depends on continued U.S. expansion, sustained margin gains, and operating expenses staying within guidance. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakening would add pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
CVRX has signs of execution in growth and margins, but remains loss-making and high risk, with a recent earnings miss and near-term results still uncertain. The 1-3 year thesis hinges on continued execution and better financial performance relative to its industry. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management figures unavailable.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating expenses between $103M and $107M for 2026 | Operating expenses are guided between $103 million and $107 million. | Intact | Operating expenses rise above $107 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue guidance between $63M and $67M for 2026 | A primary condition in CVRx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $63 million and <= $67 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $63 million or above $67 million in FY26 | Revenue: $15.705M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $63 million and <= $67 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202615,705,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e8d88578-5aa4-4953-ae77-79a0daddc258. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.89 → $-1.93 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.89 | $76,176,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.88 | $72,265,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.88 | $72,265,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.88 | $67,865,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.90 | $76,125,043 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.93 | $65,280,429 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.93 | $65,285,229 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.93 | $65,282,414 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.