CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$131.66-1.27%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin near 20.5%: Operating margin 8.2% vs 20.5% target (trip <19%).
Commvault grows revenue about 13% yearly, driven by subscription services. Profit margin is strong at 20.5% guided operating margin. Free cash flow is solid near $255 million. Partnerships with Microsoft boost growth and market position.
Operating income fell from $26.7 million to $16.6 million last year, showing profit pressure. Growth could slow if subscription sales weaken. Rising costs might limit margin gains.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $168. Analysts expect about 13% revenue growth. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting confidence in durable growth and margin strength.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $215 million
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 19%
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.18 billion in fiscal 2027
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on subscription revenue and profitable growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.
The market currently prices CVLT at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat high. The valuation is considered expensive, with a notable expectations gap suggesting that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with priorities like increasing subscription revenue and improving operating income. However, there is a low probability of missing expectations, although recent industry trends show some peers have struggled.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including whether the Fed cuts rates, which could benefit tech stocks like CVLT. Additionally, continued strong performance from sector leaders like SAP and CRM will be crucial for maintaining momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat indicates strong revenue growth. New partnerships enhance AI platform adoption and growth potential. These developments support a more favorable outlook for the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on driving revenue growth through subscription services and other offerings.
Breaks if: Partnerships weaken or fail to deliver growth
Overall, CVLT's strong fundamentals and management focus provide a solid foundation, but elevated risks and high expectations warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.