CommVault Systems (CVLT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$169.37+0.93%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CommVault Systems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.22 → 6.21 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Subscription revenue	$264M–$268M	—
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	338.77M
EPS	—	1.382
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$1.3B–$1.31B	1.31B
Subscription revenue	$1.12B–$1.13B	—
EPS	—	5.462
Free cash flow	$250M–$260M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.45B
EPS	—	6.215

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $255 million	Free cash flow is solid near $255 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $215 million	Free cash flow: $51.101M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$255 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202651,101,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 20.5%	Profit margin is strong at 20.5% guided operating margin.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 19%	Operating margin: 8.19% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 20.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20268.187349 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f7afb13a-755d-46c5-be01-8833e2c52510. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $1.305 billion	Commvault grows revenue about 13% yearly, driven by subscription services.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.18 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $314.131M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.305 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026314,131,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f7afb13a-755d-46c5-be01-8833e2c52510. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Partnerships with Microsoft support growth	Partnerships with Microsoft boost growth and market position.	Intact	Partnerships weaken or fail to deliver growth	Qualitative: 4 partnership expansions (CrowdStrike, Azure, Google) + Q1 earnings beat Recent news confirms new deals with CrowdStrike and Google, plus Azure expansion, alongside Q1 earnings beats driven by SaaS growth. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.21

$6.02 → $6.21 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.45B

$1.46B → $1.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.02	$1,455,733,560	18 / 18
2026-07-25	$6.02	$1,455,733,560	18 / 18
2026-07-26	$6.02	$1,455,733,560	18 / 18
2026-07-27	$6.02	$1,455,733,560	18 / 18
2026-07-28	$6.02	$1,455,733,560	18 / 18
2026-07-29	$6.19	$1,453,820,941	10 / 13
2026-07-30	$6.19	$1,453,820,941	10 / 13
2026-07-31	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-01	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-02	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-03	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-04	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-05	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-06	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-07	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-08	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-09	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-10	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-11	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-12	$6.15	$1,453,453,110	18 / 18
2026-08-13	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-14	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-15	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-16	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-17	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-18	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-19	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-20	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-21	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-23	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$6.22	$1,454,291,529	10 / 13
2026-08-25	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-26	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-29	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-30	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-08-31	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-09-01	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-09-02	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-09-03	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-09-04	$6.22	$1,454,293,729	10 / 13
2026-09-05	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$6.22	$1,454,293,971	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$6.22	$1,454,160,972	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-09-30	$6.22	$1,454,163,006	10 / 13
2026-10-01	$6.22	$1,454,171,706	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$6.22	$1,454,171,706	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$6.22	$1,454,171,706	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$6.22	$1,454,171,706	10 / 13
2026-10-05	$6.22	$1,454,171,706	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$6.22	$1,454,171,705	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$6.21	$1,453,966,150	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$6.21	$1,453,966,150	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$6.21	$1,453,966,150	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$6.21	$1,453,966,150	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$6.21	$1,453,966,150	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$6.21	$1,454,071,705	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$6.21	$1,454,071,705	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$6.21	$1,453,675,228	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$6.21	$1,453,675,228	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$6.21	$1,453,675,228	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$6.21	$1,453,674,728	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	6
2026-06-01	11	6
2026-07-01	11	8
2026-08-01	10	8
2026-09-01	11	8
2026-10-01	11	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$175.00 → $185.00+5.7%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$150.00 → $160.00+6.7%

ScotiabankOct 5 · prior Jul 29

$130.00 → $160.00+23.1%

$0$101.75$203.50

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $255 millionFree cash flow: $51.101M
Operating margin near 20.5%Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $1.305 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CommVault Systems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CVLT is a growth-oriented software business with improving profitability, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and progress on management’s stated priorities.

What's priced into CommVault Systems

The valuation model labels CVLT expensive, even though its valuation has recently fallen and its relative valuation measure points to a discount versus peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not suggest that expectations are unusually stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show subscription revenue and subscription ARR growing, alongside higher operating margins and free cash flow. Management has stayed focused on these priorities and recent results show progress, but a CFO transition and elevated overall risk warrant attention. The near-term miss-risk estimate is low, though the evidence notes peers have missed lately and CVLT has a deep miss in its recent history.

What CommVault Systems hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific swing factor is whether CVLT maintains execution or cuts guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued growth in subscriptions, ARR, margins, and cash generation would support the multi-year thesis. Broader conditions also matter: Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the technology backdrop.