CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.16-0.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CVR Energy, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Capital expenditure	$85M–$105M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	1.563
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.21B
EPS	—	3.569
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.82B
EPS	—	4.552

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Keep capital expenditures within $200 million to $240 million for full year 2026	It aims to keep capital spending within $200-$240 million for 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $250 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $43M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $200M to $240M total CAPEX. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202643,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures for the Petroleum Segment were guided at $65 to $77 million in 2026-Q2 and $41 to $50 million for 2026-Q3, consistent with management's disciplined capital allocation approach. The guidance and spending remain within targeted ranges, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Control direct operating expenses between $57 million and $62 million per quarter	A supporting condition in CVR Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is direct operating expenses <= $62 million per quarter.	Intact	operating expenses exceed $65 million per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain crude utilization near 97% and ammonia plant utilization near 103%	CVR Energy runs its plants at high utilization, about 97% crude and 103% ammonia.	Intact	utilization falls below 90% for either crude or ammonia plants	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Crude utilization rates were 97% in 2026-Q1 and improved to 98% in 2026-Q2, while ammonia plant utilization was 103% in 2026-Q1 and 99% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes safe, reliable operations, and the utilization metrics show delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain adjusted refining margin capture near 46%	A primary condition in CVR Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=46% adjusted margin capture.	Improving	margin capture falls below 40% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Petroleum Segment adjusted refining margin per throughput barrel improved from $9.95 in 2025-Q2 to $12.43 in 2026-Q2, and refining margin improved from $2.21 to $9.94 over the same period. Management's focus on margin capture aligns with these improving margin metrics, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$7.45B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$7,449,805,540	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$7,545,651,740	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$7,545,651,740	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$7,547,251,740	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$7,547,251,740	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$7,592,251,740	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$7,592,251,740	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$7,666,200,130	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	4
2026-06-01	3	5
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 9

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior Jul 7

$28.00 → $52.00+85.7%

UBSOct 2 · prior Jun 29

$35.00 → $53.00+51.4%

$0$29.15$58.30

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Keep capital expenditures within $200 million to $240 million for full year 2026Capital expenditures: $43M
Control direct operating expenses between $57 million and $62 million per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain crude utilization near 97% and ammonia plant utilization near 103%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain adjusted refining margin capture near 46%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CVR Energy, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical refining business, where results can shift with industry conditions. The multi-year view is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but earnings quality is loss-making and recent performance remains weak.

What's priced into CVR Energy, Inc.

CVI is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified, with low fragility; it flags a turbulent sector regime rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector pressure.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has kept a steady focus on reliable operations, refining margins, and disciplined capital spending. Utilization and refining-margin measures improved in some recent comparisons, but the overall performance assessment remains weak, and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.

What CVR Energy, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis. The sector backdrop is another swing factor: continued strong results and higher guidance from MPC, VLO, and PSX would support the industry tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.