CytomX Therapeutics Inc (CTMX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.32-4.92%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CytomX Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.29M
EPS	—	-0.1
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	25.27M
EPS	—	-0.381
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	30.41M
EPS	—	-0.458

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce operating loss by at least $5M per quarter	The company improved its operating loss by $8.26M recently.	Intact	operating loss fails to improve by $5M QoQ	Operating income: $-23.781M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce operating loss by >=$5M QoQ. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-23,781,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 216ffa31-a893-4ec4-97a8-812db779cb86. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth above 5% quarterly	A primary condition in CytomX Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% QoQ revenue growth.	Broken	quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% QoQ	Revenue growth: -92.4% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% QoQ revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-92.400043 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 216ffa31-a893-4ec4-97a8-812db779cb86. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance collaboration with Regeneron on bispecific cancer therapies	It has a strong partnership with Regeneron to develop cancer therapies.	Intact	partnership with Regeneron ends or stalls materially	Qualitative: Active collaboration confirmed via 2026-06-03 amendment CTMX amended its Collaboration and License Agreement with Regeneron on 2026-06-03, confirming continued active collaboration on bispecific cancer therapies. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.46

$-0.49 → $-0.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.03B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.49	$34,255,930	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.52	$34,255,930	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.44	$32,489,270	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$-0.50	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-10	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-11	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-15	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-16	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-17	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-18	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$-0.46	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce operating loss by at least $5M per quarterOperating income: $-23.781M
Sustain revenue growth above 5% quarterlyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CytomX Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-development business, where the thesis depends on advancing drug candidates and partnership opportunities rather than established financial performance. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on stated priorities, but recent performance remains weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into CytomX Therapeutics Inc

CTMX is valued at a substantial premium to peers, with a large expectations gap attributed to optionality, or potential value from future opportunities. The evidence flags that premium as unjustified given weak execution quality, and model confidence is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings quality is fragile and recent financial performance is weak, although an August earnings beat and stronger sector context provide some support. Management completed enrollment in Varseta-M Phase 1 dose optimization, expanded its Regeneron collaboration, and maintained its stated cash runway to at least the second half of 2028. The next results remain a risk, with a high-miss-rate industry and recent peer misses raising concern.

What CytomX Therapeutics Inc hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether Varseta-M advances toward the planned late-line colorectal cancer study in the first half of 2027 and whether the expanded Regeneron collaboration produces further progress. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued strength from Healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence for how these factors will translate into durable financial performance is limited.