CSX Corporation (CSX)

NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$48.68-0.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CSX Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.28 → 2.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share buybacks of $5 billion authorized in 2026	A supporting condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=5 billion USD buyback authorization.	Intact	buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at least $1.54 in full year 2026	Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to $1.92 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $1.54 for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expenses near $2.23 billion in Q1 2026	A primary condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=2.23 billion USD.	Intact	expenses rise above $2.23 billion in any quarter after Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating margin improved from 35.9% in 2025-Q2 to 38.3% in 2026-Q2, and operating income increased from $1.28 billion to $1.51 billion over the same period. Management’s focus on cost control and productivity is reflected in improving profitability, indicating progress delivering this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth near 6.5% per year	A supporting condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.5% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 6.5% year over year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.29

$2.22 → $2.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.07B

$15.73B → $16.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.22	$15,734,361,130	25 / 20
2026-07-25	$2.26	$15,887,248,020	25 / 21
2026-07-26	$2.26	$15,887,248,020	25 / 21
2026-07-27	$2.26	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-07-28	$2.26	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-07-29	$2.27	$15,919,304,524	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$2.27	$15,919,304,524	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$2.26	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-08-01	$2.27	$15,919,304,524	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$2.26	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-08-03	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$2.27	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-08-06	$2.27	$15,901,390,880	25 / 21
2026-08-07	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.27	$15,941,620,330	25 / 21
2026-08-09	$2.27	$15,941,620,330	25 / 21
2026-08-10	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-11	$2.27	$15,941,620,330	25 / 21
2026-08-12	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-17	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-18	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-19	$2.27	$15,952,145,441	16 / 16
2026-08-20	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-21	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-22	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-23	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-24	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-25	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-26	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-27	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-28	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-29	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-30	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-08-31	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-01	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-02	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-03	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-04	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-07	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-08	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-09	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-10	$2.28	$15,961,544,761	16 / 16
2026-09-11	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	16 / 16
2026-09-12	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	17 / 16
2026-09-13	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	17 / 16
2026-09-14	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	17 / 16
2026-09-15	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	17 / 16
2026-09-16	$2.28	$15,961,459,751	17 / 16
2026-09-17	$2.28	$15,959,506,495	17 / 16
2026-09-18	$2.28	$15,959,506,495	17 / 16
2026-09-19	$2.28	$15,959,506,495	17 / 16
2026-09-20	$2.28	$15,973,514,291	17 / 16
2026-09-21	$2.28	$15,973,514,291	17 / 16
2026-09-22	$2.28	$15,973,514,291	17 / 16
2026-09-23	$2.28	$15,973,514,291	17 / 16
2026-09-24	$2.28	$15,974,214,291	17 / 16
2026-09-25	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-09-26	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-09-27	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-09-28	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-09-29	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-09-30	$2.28	$15,973,984,291	17 / 16
2026-10-01	$2.28	$15,986,338,790	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$2.28	$15,993,911,622	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$2.28	$15,994,611,622	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$2.28	$16,002,611,622	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$2.28	$16,002,611,622	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$2.28	$16,012,884,847	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$2.28	$16,029,834,847	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$2.29	$16,050,280,736	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$2.29	$16,060,213,390	13 / 15
2026-10-10	$2.29	$16,060,213,390	13 / 15
2026-10-11	$2.29	$16,060,213,390	13 / 15
2026-10-12	$2.29	$16,060,213,390	13 / 15
2026-10-13	$2.29	$16,072,413,390	13 / 15
2026-10-14	$2.29	$16,072,463,390	13 / 15
2026-10-15	$2.29	$16,072,463,390	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	7	2
2026-06-01	15	6	2
2026-07-01	17	6	2
2026-08-01	17	6	2
2026-09-01	17	6	2
2026-10-01	17	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 15 · prior Jul 13

$56.00 → $53.00-5.4%

RBC CapitalSep 24 · prior Jul 23

$54.00 → $53.00-1.9%

$0$30.80$61.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share buybacks of $5 billion authorized in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS at least $1.54 in full year 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Expenses near $2.23 billion in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth near 6.5% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CSX Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into CSX Corporation

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above the average. CSX is priced at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth is already factored into its valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to achieve volume growth and improve expense profiles. Recent results show strong operating income and margins, although there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.

What CSX Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UNP, NSC, and WAB. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could bolster CSX, while negative trends could pose risks to its growth trajectory.