Cisco (CSCO)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$107.39-2.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cisco’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.59 → 5.55 EPS · FY ending Jul 25, 2028 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
AI-related revenue grows significantly, supporting overall growth	A supporting condition in Cisco's published investment case. The stated target is AI revenue grows to ~$9B in FY26.	Intact	AI revenue growth stalls or declines in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP EPS about $4.28 in fiscal 2026	Cisco grows revenue about 12% yearly, hitting $62.9B in fiscal 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.00 in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 34.2% in fiscal 2026	Profit margins stay strong near 34%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 32% in fiscal 2026	Operating margin: 24.72% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ≈34.2%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202624.715975 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bca1b791-f9d4-4c26-863c-7d1e34b7ee4e. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $62.9 billion in fiscal 2026	Cisco grows revenue about 12% yearly, hitting $62.9B in fiscal 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $60B in fiscal 2026	Revenue: $17.252B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ≈$62.89B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202617,252,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 25, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-25 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.55

$5.27 → $5.55 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$77.99B

$73.45B → $77.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-13	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	8 / 19
2026-08-14	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	8 / 19
2026-08-15	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	8 / 19
2026-08-16	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	15 / 20
2026-08-17	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	15 / 20
2026-08-18	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	15 / 20
2026-08-19	$5.27	$73,447,141,527	16 / 21
2026-08-20	$5.60	$78,249,901,749	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$5.60	$78,249,901,749	13 / 17
2026-08-22	$5.60	$78,249,996,987	13 / 17
2026-08-23	$5.60	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$5.60	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	15 / 18
2026-08-30	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	15 / 18
2026-08-31	$5.59	$78,249,996,987	15 / 18
2026-09-01	$5.60	$78,313,042,579	15 / 18
2026-09-02	$5.60	$78,313,042,579	15 / 18
2026-09-03	$5.60	$78,313,042,579	15 / 19
2026-09-04	$5.60	$78,313,042,579	15 / 19
2026-09-05	$5.60	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-06	$5.60	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-07	$5.60	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-08	$5.60	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-09	$5.60	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-10	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-11	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-12	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	15 / 19
2026-09-13	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	15 / 19
2026-09-14	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-15	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-16	$5.59	$78,313,063,570	16 / 19
2026-09-17	$5.59	$78,313,065,477	16 / 19
2026-09-18	$5.59	$78,313,065,477	16 / 19
2026-09-19	$5.59	$78,313,065,477	16 / 19
2026-09-20	$5.59	$78,313,065,477	16 / 19
2026-09-21	$5.59	$78,313,065,477	16 / 19
2026-09-22	$5.59	$78,312,929,114	16 / 19
2026-09-23	$5.54	$78,312,929,114	16 / 19
2026-09-24	$5.54	$78,312,929,114	16 / 19
2026-09-25	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-09-26	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-09-27	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$5.54	$77,868,687,643	16 / 19
2026-10-01	$5.55	$77,964,974,568	16 / 20
2026-10-02	$5.55	$77,964,974,568	16 / 20
2026-10-03	$5.55	$77,964,974,568	16 / 20
2026-10-04	$5.55	$77,964,974,568	16 / 20
2026-10-05	$5.55	$77,964,974,568	16 / 20
2026-10-06	$5.55	$77,964,974,923	16 / 20
2026-10-07	$5.55	$77,964,974,923	16 / 20
2026-10-08	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-09	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-10	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-11	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-12	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-13	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-14	$5.55	$77,972,229,441	16 / 20
2026-10-15	$5.55	$77,989,865,804	16 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	9	1
2026-06-01	17	8	1
2026-07-01	17	8	1
2026-08-01	19	10	1
2026-09-01	19	10	0
2026-10-01	19	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinSep 30

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 22 · prior May 14

$132.00 → $125.00-5.3%

$0$72.60$145.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

AI-related revenue grows significantly, supporting overall growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP EPS about $4.28 in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 34.2% in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $62.9 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cisco outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, given its consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong financial results and management priorities.

What's priced into Cisco

The market seems to price CSCO as justified, with a low fragility tier despite some execution quality concerns. It is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully account for its growth potential.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong performance, as management is on track with its priorities of revenue growth and profitability. However, there is a moderate risk due to a recent history of earnings surprises trending down, which could impact future results.

What Cisco hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts that could benefit tech stocks. Additionally, guidance from CSCO in upcoming calls will be crucial, as any cuts could negatively affect market sentiment.