Crocs (CROX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$111.09-2.85%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near $13.47 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $13.70-$14.00 vs $13.47 target.
Crocs has strong profit margins near 18-19%. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to about $13.47. The stock trades at a low PE of 10, well below peers at 17.3. New product focus and social commerce support steady revenue growth.
Revenue declined 1.7% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Operating income fell from $223M to $201M in the same period. Market conditions remain challenging and growth progress is mixed.
The price is about 21% below our fair value near $158. Analysts expect modest 2.4% revenue growth. Our fair value is 17% above the Street median, reflecting confidence in margin and earnings expansion.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $13.2 in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 17% in Q3 2025
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -1% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CROX represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing brand focus.
The valuation suggests that the market views CROX as expensive compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This indicates that investors may be anticipating strong future performance despite the current high valuation.
Management is focused on driving revenue growth for its Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, with recent results showing mixed trends. The adjusted operating margin is on track for modest expansion, although earnings quality remains fragile.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and expand margins while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include potential guidance cuts and inflation trends that could impact consumer spending.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 23.8 points (from 49.2 to 25.4).
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive view. A new partnership with Infosys enhances revenue growth potential. There are no current threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management aims to achieve revenue growth despite challenging market conditions.
Breaks if: PE ratio rises above 15 without earnings growth
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CROX's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.