Crocs (CROX)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$119.23-1.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Crocs’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.95 → 15.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$3.2–$3.3non-GAAP	—
Operating margin	About 21.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	995.65M
EPS	—	3.11
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.1B
EPS	—	13.965
Operating margin	22.3%non-GAAP 21.7%GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.2B
EPS	—	15.009

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $13.47 in FY26	A primary condition in Crocs's published investment case. The stated target is EPS $13.47.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $13.2 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS $13.47. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20264.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1880b4b4-1914-46dc-8db7-3d4fc618c8fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 18-19% in Q3 2025	A primary condition in Crocs's published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 19% operating margin.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 17% in Q3 2025	Operating margin: 24.22% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 19% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202624.22092 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1880b4b4-1914-46dc-8db7-3d4fc618c8fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 0% to +1% in FY26	A primary condition in Crocs's published investment case. The stated target is 0% to +1% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below -1% in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0% to +1% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262.618384 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1880b4b4-1914-46dc-8db7-3d4fc618c8fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio near 10, below peer median 17.3	The stock trades at a low PE of 10, well below peers at 17.3.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 15 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 9.35x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.3514 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: CROX:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.01

$14.54 → $15.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.20B

$4.17B → $4.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.54	$4,169,678,000	15 / 13
2026-07-25	$14.54	$4,170,842,180	15 / 13
2026-07-26	$14.54	$4,173,674,879	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$14.54	$4,170,842,180	15 / 13
2026-07-28	$14.54	$4,170,842,180	15 / 13
2026-07-29	$14.55	$4,175,663,450	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$14.55	$4,172,983,720	15 / 13
2026-07-31	$14.64	$4,171,570,300	15 / 11
2026-08-01	$14.73	$4,191,820,252	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$14.93	$4,205,617,790	15 / 13
2026-08-03	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$14.93	$4,205,617,790	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$14.92	$4,203,840,860	15 / 13
2026-08-06	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-07	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$14.92	$4,203,840,860	15 / 13
2026-08-09	$14.92	$4,203,840,860	15 / 13
2026-08-10	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-11	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$14.95	$4,201,049,630	15 / 13
2026-08-13	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$14.96	$4,207,802,731	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$14.95	$4,203,563,180	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$14.95	$4,201,784,608	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$14.96	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$14.96	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$14.96	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$14.96	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$14.96	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$14.99	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$14.99	$4,199,806,037	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$15.01	$4,200,725,994	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$15.01	$4,200,725,994	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$15.01	$4,200,725,994	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$15.01	$4,201,321,318	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$15.01	$4,201,321,318	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$15.01	$4,201,321,318	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$15.01	$4,201,321,318	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	9	1
2026-06-01	7	9	1
2026-07-01	7	7	1
2026-08-01	7	7	1
2026-09-01	7	7	1
2026-10-01	8	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Jul 31

$118.00 → $139.00+17.8%

$0$76.45$152.90

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $13.47 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 18-19% in Q3 2025Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 0% to +1% in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
PE ratio near 10, below peer median 17.3P/E (TTM): 9.35x

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Crocs outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a consumer-brand business with a mixed growth profile, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder: Crocs is growing while HEYDUDE has weakness in wholesale. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into Crocs

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure puts CROX cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium to peers. The overall assessment is expensive, with the current pricing characterized as justified rather than reflecting a full stack of weak execution and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong: Crocs Brand revenue rose 4.3% in 2026-Q2 and direct-to-consumer revenue grew 12.0%, while HEYDUDE wholesale declined. Adjusted operating margin was 25.1%, below the prior year, and management is focused on modest expansion; a guidance cut on the next call remains a meaningful risk despite a low estimated miss risk.

What Crocs hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining growth across Crocs and HEYDUDE while managing weakness in HEYDUDE wholesale and making progress on margins. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from NKE, DECK, and SHOO could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.