Carter's, Inc. (CRI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$32.60-3.92%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carter's, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	921.75M
EPS	—	1.661
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.97B
EPS	—	3.166
Capital expenditure	$50M	—
Operating cash flow	$230M–$240M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.01B
EPS	—	3.456

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.25 per share	The company keeps paying stable dividends of $0.25 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.25 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 98e87aea-948d-4a89-b052-d7a131769bad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company declared and paid quarterly dividends of $0.25 per share in Q1 and Q2 2026, continuing a pattern from fiscal 2025 when $56.4 million was paid in dividends. Future dividends remain at Board discretion. The trajectory shows consistent maintenance of dividend payments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Generate free cash flow near $115 million	Free cash flow is expected near $115 million in 2026.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $110 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $190.043M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF between $110M and $120M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026190,043,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve adjusted operating income	A primary condition in Carter's, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is low single-digit growth in adjusted operating income.	Under Pressure	adjusted operating income fails to grow or declines further in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose sharply from $4.0 million in 2025-Q2 to $139.8 million in 2026-Q2, driven by tariff refunds and productivity gains. Q1 2026 operating income increased modestly to $28.4 million from $26.1 million in 2025-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering significant improvement in operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve low to mid single-digit revenue growth	A primary condition in Carter's, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7.7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20265.155703 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 98e87aea-948d-4a89-b052-d7a131769bad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $629.8 million in 2025-Q1 to $681.1 million in 2026-Q1 (+8.1%) and from $585.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $615.5 million in 2026-Q2 (+5.2%). Fiscal 2025 net sales were $2.898 billion, up 2% from prior year. The trajectory shows delivering consistent revenue growth across segments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,026,592,593	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,022,304,030	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,014,128,805	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,014,214,408	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	2
2026-06-01	2	4	2
2026-07-01	2	4	1
2026-08-01	2	4	1
2026-09-01	3	4	1
2026-10-01	3	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 19 · prior May 11

$41.00 → $38.00-7.3%

$0$22.55$45.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.25 per shareDividend per share: $0.25 per share
Generate free cash flow near $115 millionFree cash flow: $190.043M
Improve adjusted operating incomePublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve low to mid single-digit revenue growthRevenue growth: 5.16%

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carter's, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CRI is a value-oriented consumer discretionary business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a clear, steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management is rated volatile and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into Carter's, Inc.

The evidence describes CRI as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The valuation measure recently rose, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may still be demanding despite the peer discount.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent revenue growth and operating income gains support the business setup, and management has kept those priorities in focus. Some operating income improvement came from tariff refunds, so the scale of ongoing gains is less clear. The stated near-term miss risk is low, but erratic earnings surprises and possible guidance cuts remain risks.

What Carter's, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and operating improvement without a guidance cut. Sector bellwethers such as TJX, ROST, and BURL are also important signals: continued strength would support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.