CRH plc (CRH)

NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$83.63+1.59%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CRH plc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.56 → 6.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest $0.9 billion in value-accretive acquisitions in Q1	The company keeps strong cash flow and invests $0.9 billion in acquisitions in Q1.	Intact	Acquisition investment falls below $0.9 billion in Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Investment in acquisitions grew from $0.6bn in 2025-Q1 to $1.4bn by 2026-Q2 year-to-date, with a major $8.5bn acquisition agreement for Arcosa announced in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes acquisitions as a key growth driver, and the financial data shows active delivery and increasing scale of acquisitions. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near $5.96 in FY26	A primary condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.96 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $5.6 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.96 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20262.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5dcfebc3-e1bf-45ca-9c7b-b780d2527da3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently confirmed 2026 guidance ranges for net income ($3.9bn-$4.1bn), adjusted EBITDA ($8.1bn-$8.5bn), and diluted EPS ($5.60-$6.05). The financials show net income growing from $3.8bn in 2025 to expected $3.9bn-$4.1bn in 2026, indicating management is maintaining its growth outlook and delivering on guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net debt below $16 billion	A supporting condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is <=16 USD billion.	Under Pressure	Net debt rises above $16 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 6.7% YoY	A primary condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 6.7% next year	Revenue growth: 5.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265.594748 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5dcfebc3-e1bf-45ca-9c7b-b780d2527da3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently confirmed 2026 guidance ranges for net income ($3.9bn-$4.1bn), adjusted EBITDA ($8.1bn-$8.5bn), and diluted EPS ($5.60-$6.05). The financials show net income growing from $3.8bn in 2025 to expected $3.9bn-$4.1bn in 2026, indicating management is maintaining its growth outlook and delivering on guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.40

$6.78 → $6.40 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$42.04B

$41.97B → $42.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.78	$41,967,734,740	17 / 21
2026-07-25	$6.79	$42,067,638,380	17 / 21
2026-07-26	$6.79	$42,067,638,380	17 / 21
2026-07-27	$6.67	$42,090,345,405	13 / 15
2026-07-28	$6.79	$42,067,638,380	17 / 21
2026-07-29	$6.79	$42,063,876,470	17 / 21
2026-07-30	$6.79	$42,063,876,470	17 / 21
2026-07-31	$6.80	$42,156,560,300	16 / 20
2026-08-01	$6.71	$42,080,333,400	12 / 14
2026-08-02	$6.74	$42,050,214,680	17 / 21
2026-08-03	$6.74	$42,050,214,680	17 / 21
2026-08-04	$6.73	$42,032,079,520	17 / 21
2026-08-05	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$6.70	$42,032,079,520	18 / 21
2026-08-07	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$6.70	$42,124,374,560	17 / 22
2026-08-09	$6.71	$42,083,633,110	16 / 21
2026-08-10	$6.71	$42,083,633,110	16 / 21
2026-08-11	$6.71	$42,083,633,110	16 / 21
2026-08-12	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$6.71	$42,119,992,478	12 / 14
2026-08-20	$6.66	$42,254,054,776	12 / 14
2026-08-21	$6.66	$42,254,054,776	12 / 14
2026-08-22	$6.66	$42,254,054,776	12 / 14
2026-08-23	$6.66	$42,254,054,776	12 / 14
2026-08-24	$6.66	$42,254,054,776	12 / 14
2026-08-25	$6.66	$42,229,737,137	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	13 / 15
2026-08-30	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	13 / 15
2026-08-31	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	13 / 15
2026-09-01	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	13 / 15
2026-09-02	$6.65	$42,229,752,037	13 / 15
2026-09-03	$6.63	$42,170,270,806	13 / 15
2026-09-04	$6.63	$42,170,288,394	13 / 15
2026-09-05	$6.63	$42,170,288,394	13 / 15
2026-09-06	$6.63	$42,170,288,394	13 / 15
2026-09-07	$6.63	$42,170,288,394	13 / 15
2026-09-08	$6.63	$42,170,288,394	13 / 15
2026-09-09	$6.62	$42,167,774,414	13 / 15
2026-09-10	$6.57	$42,106,345,843	13 / 15
2026-09-11	$6.57	$42,106,345,843	13 / 15
2026-09-12	$6.56	$42,146,054,894	13 / 15
2026-09-13	$6.56	$42,146,054,894	13 / 15
2026-09-14	$6.56	$42,146,054,894	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$6.56	$42,146,038,705	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$6.56	$42,146,038,705	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 16
2026-09-18	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 16
2026-09-19	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 16
2026-09-20	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 15
2026-09-21	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 15
2026-09-22	$6.55	$42,121,675,069	13 / 15
2026-09-23	$6.55	$42,091,345,160	13 / 15
2026-09-24	$6.55	$42,091,345,160	13 / 15
2026-09-25	$6.54	$42,019,539,320	13 / 15
2026-09-26	$6.54	$42,019,517,742	13 / 15
2026-09-27	$6.54	$42,019,517,742	13 / 15
2026-09-28	$6.54	$42,019,517,742	13 / 15
2026-09-29	$6.54	$42,019,517,742	13 / 15
2026-09-30	$6.54	$42,027,585,400	13 / 16
2026-10-01	$6.54	$42,027,585,400	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$6.49	$42,098,636,863	13 / 15
2026-10-03	$6.47	$42,089,789,037	13 / 15
2026-10-04	$6.47	$42,089,789,037	13 / 15
2026-10-05	$6.47	$42,089,789,037	13 / 15
2026-10-06	$6.45	$42,070,875,994	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$6.45	$42,069,615,124	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$6.45	$42,069,615,124	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$6.46	$42,142,424,781	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$6.45	$42,133,459,563	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$6.42	$42,017,844,089	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$6.42	$42,017,844,089	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$6.41	$42,049,082,050	12 / 13
2026-10-14	$6.40	$42,044,408,058	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$6.40	$42,044,408,058	12 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	2
2026-06-01	21	2
2026-07-01	19	2
2026-08-01	20	2
2026-09-01	22	2
2026-10-01	23	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9

$135.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 9

$118.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Sep 9

$107.00 → $106.00-0.9%

Truist FinancialOct 5

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 22

$135.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$74.25$148.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest $0.9 billion in value-accretive acquisitions in Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $5.96 in FY26Published status: Broken
Net debt below $16 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth at or above 6.7% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CRH plc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions. The current thesis state is intact, but confidence has recently shifted to low due to mixed performance indicators.

What's priced into CRH plc

The market currently prices CRH as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a gap in expectations. There is a low level of fragility in execution quality, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to market fluctuations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable as management continues to prioritize acquisitions and reaffirm financial guidance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given recent industry trends.

What CRH plc hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential positive shifts in guidance, inflation trends, and performance from sector leaders. Monitoring these elements will be crucial for assessing future performance.