Coty (COTY)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.23+0.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coty’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.25 → 0.25 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
EPS	$0.11–$0.13non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	1.64B
EPS	—	0.162
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.7B
EPS	—	0.324
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.23B
EPS	—	0.249

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improves from -$203.1M in Q3 2026	Cash flow from operations is a focus, despite a fall to -$203.1M in Q3 2026.	Recovered	Cash flow from operations falls below -$203.1M in any quarter	Cash from operations: $116M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations > -$203.1M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 2026116,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit stabilizes near $791.9M in Q3 2026	A supporting condition in Coty's published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit >= $791.9M in next 4 quarters.	Broken	Gross profit falls below $791.9M in any quarter	Gross profit: $698.8M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $791.9M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 2026698,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$372M in Q3 2026	Management targets operating income recovery after a sharp drop to -$372M in Q3 2026.	Broken	Operating income falls below -$372M in any quarter	Operating income: $-41M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > -$372M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 2026-41,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves from -1.0% YoY in Q3 2026	A supporting condition in Coty's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -1.0% YoY in next 4 quarters.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below -1.0% YoY in any quarter	Revenue growth: 1.34% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= -1.0% YoY in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 20, 20261.341424 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.25

$0.39 → $0.25 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$5.23B

$5.75B → $5.23B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.39	$5,753,025,027	5 / 10
2026-07-25	$0.39	$5,753,025,027	5 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-07-31	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-05	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-11	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-13	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.38	$5,705,314,489	5 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.37	$5,687,169,306	6 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.34	$5,638,070,590	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$0.29	$5,440,564,745	5 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.29	$5,440,564,745	8 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.29	$5,440,564,745	8 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.27	$5,374,981,412	8 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.27	$5,355,253,484	8 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.27	$5,355,253,484	8 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.27	$5,355,253,484	8 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.26	$5,299,949,664	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.26	$5,299,953,085	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.25	$5,244,694,729	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.25	$5,226,841,848	7 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.25	$5,226,841,848	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.25	$5,226,841,848	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.25	$5,225,630,562	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.25	$5,226,246,135	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.25	$5,226,246,135	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.25	$5,226,246,135	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.25	$5,226,281,849	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.25	$5,226,281,849	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.24	$5,226,288,992	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.24	$5,226,288,992	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.24	$5,226,288,992	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.25	$5,226,606,999	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.25	$5,226,606,999	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	15	2
2026-06-01	1	15	2
2026-07-01	1	14	2
2026-08-01	1	16	2
2026-09-01	0	16	2
2026-10-01	0	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 19

$2.95New observation · no comparable prior

$0$1.62$3.25

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improves from -$203.1M in Q3 2026Cash from operations: $116M
Gross profit stabilizes near $791.9M in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Operating income improves from -$372M in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue growth stabilizes or improves from -1.0% YoY in Q3 2026Revenue growth: 1.34%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coty outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a challenged consumer-products business with a possible recovery path, rather than a proven durable grower. The long-term thesis is still on watch, with recent momentum improving but financial performance remaining weak.

What's priced into Coty

COTY is described as cheap versus peers, and the valuation signal is tagged as justified, with low model confidence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly undemanding despite the peer discount.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, another earnings miss is a meaningful risk after consecutive misses and recent peer weakness. Over the multi-year view, debt reduction is progressing, but FY26 revenue and adjusted operating income declined, while operating margin also contracted. The CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty as management works to strengthen the core business.

What Coty hinges on

The thesis depends on whether the Coty.Curated strategy can turn steady execution into better revenue and profitability. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness would add pressure, while continued strength from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.