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Track COSO free→CoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc. (COSO)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$26.62-0.78%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that COSO's steady management and robust earnings quality support growth. Revenue growth is steady, but the latest quarter missed expectations by 7%. COSO trades at 1.3× price-to-book, compared to a peer median of 1.2×. The risk is a 40% chance of missing again next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $326.46M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-06-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-27
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.62. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$34.78
Range $26.61 – $41.23
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement : high · 9 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $27 COSO trades at 1.3× p/b, in line with its 1.2× p/b peer median — but our blended $35 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
1.3x
peer 1.2x · own history 1.3x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-21%
our forecast -15%
Our fair value
$34.80
range $26.65 – $41.31
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about -15% growth — in line with our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
12.1xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2527).
78th pctl · Financials
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish2 analysts, 100% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.60 (+1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$65.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,165.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The confidence label changed from 'low' to 'medium'. The signal label changed from 'None' to 'mild_favorable'.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for progress on the $15M stock repurchase plan
Why it matters: Successful buybacks can boost earnings per share and investor confidence. It shows strong capital management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company completes at least $5M in stock repurchases by the next earnings date.
Disproves:The company reports no stock repurchases by the next earnings date.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COSO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting COSO and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on COSO and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping COSO and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits COSO and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If COSO misses again next quarter like this past one (a miss of -7% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-012mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. The Company announced today that its Board of Directors has authorized a stock repurchase plan (the “ 2026 Repurchase Plan ”), pursuant to which the Company may purchase, from time to time, up to an aggregate amount of $15.0 million of its shares of common stock. The 2026 Repurchase Plan will become effective on May 1, 2026, and will expire on April 30, 2027, unless extended by the Board. Repurchases under the 2026 Repurchase Plan may be made from time to time in the open market…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.