Compass, Inc. (COMP)

NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.75-2.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Compass, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-17.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.26 → 0.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$3.85B–$4.05B	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	3.45B
EPS	—	-0.073
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.36B
EPS	—	0.159
Operating expenses	$2.7B–$2.75Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	15.33B
EPS	—	0.214

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve free cash flow positive for full year 2026	Compass aims to make free cash flow positive in 2026.	Improving	cash from operating activities remains negative through FY26	Cash from operations: $191M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow positive in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026191,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reported operating cash flow of -$157 million in 2026-Q1 and $191 million in 2026-Q2, showing improvement. Management maintains guidance for free cash flow positive for full year 2026, indicating progress toward this goal but with mixed quarterly cash flow results so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Control non-GAAP operating expenses to $2.70B-$2.75B in 2026	A primary condition in Compass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $2.70B-$2.75B non-GAAP OPEX.	Broken	non-GAAP operating expenses exceed $2.75B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reach revenue of $4.0B-$4.2B in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Compass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $4.0B-$4.2B revenue.	Intact	Q2 2026 revenue falls below $4.0B	Revenue: $4.306B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $4.0B-$4.2B revenue. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 20264,306,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3aee7d24-88ea-4dde-aec5-602d0f466f97. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.21

Unavailable → $0.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.33B

$15.19B → $15.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$15,189,990,210	3 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$15,189,990,210	3 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$15,189,990,210	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$15,189,990,210	3 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$15,189,990,210	3 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$15,155,071,758	4 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$15,189,986,010	3 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$15,155,071,758	4 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$15,155,071,758	4 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$15,149,897,003	4 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$15,149,897,003	4 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$15,149,897,003	4 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$15,149,897,003	4 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$15,149,897,003	4 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$15,610,527,190	3 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$15,610,527,190	3 / 9
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$15,610,527,190	3 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$15,694,264,710	3 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$15,694,264,710	3 / 9
2026-08-14	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.25	$15,586,923,262	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.26	$15,662,323,262	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.26	$15,656,220,262	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.26	$15,656,220,262	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.26	$15,656,220,262	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.26	$15,644,115,462	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.24	$15,483,615,462	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.22	$15,405,815,462	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.21	$15,370,632,227	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.21	$15,366,711,115	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.21	$15,366,711,115	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.21	$15,366,711,115	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.21	$15,334,347,479	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	9	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	9	3
2026-10-01	10	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Compass PointOct 14

$11.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Jul 7

$12.00 → $10.00-16.7%

$0$6.60$13.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve free cash flow positive for full year 2026Cash from operations: $191M
Control non-GAAP operating expenses to $2.70B-$2.75B in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Compass, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a merger-integration and execution thesis, not a proven durable compounder today. Cost savings are on track, but the company remains loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort. The thesis state is watch, with medium confidence.

What's priced into Compass, Inc.

COMP is expensive versus peers, with a 1.25 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in tag is justified, and the evidence shows low valuation fragility, but that does not remove the risk created by weak fundamentals and elevated sector headwinds.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, cost savings provide evidence of execution: management reached $300 million in Year 1 net savings five months ahead of plan and raised its 2026 realized savings goal to $220 million. Cash flow has improved from negative in 2026-Q1 to positive in 2026-Q2, but full-year positive free cash flow remains a goal, while higher expense guidance makes progress mixed. Recent results include an earnings beat in May and an in-line report in August, but performance remains weak relative to the industry cohort and confidence has fallen to medium.

What Compass, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on delivering the $500 million net cost-savings target and achieving positive free cash flow for 2026. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could ease the sector headwind. The evidence does not establish which scenario will occur.