Capital One (COF)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$201.74+1.45%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Capital One’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.88 → 23.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at least $0.8 by 2026-Q1	Dividend per share increased from $0.6 to $0.8, showing steady payouts.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.8 in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.8 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20260.8 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5856134-c67e-4e93-95ce-62496e135462. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.60 in 2025-Q1 to $0.80 in 2026-Q2, showing management's commitment to maintaining and modestly increasing shareholder dividends. The trajectory is delivering consistent dividend payouts. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net income growth to at least $2.17B by 2026-Q1	Capital One grew net income from $1.4B to $2.2B in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $2.17B in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $3.02B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.17B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20263,020,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a5856134-c67e-4e93-95ce-62496e135462. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $2.7B by 2026-Q1	Operating income rose from $1.7B to $2.7B in the same period.	Intact	operating income falls below $2.7B in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $7.344B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20267,344,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory challenges without profit harm	A supporting condition in Capital One's published investment case. The stated target is No material profit impact from regulatory actions.	Improving	Regulatory actions cause profit decline or operational limits	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.93

$24.07 → $23.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$67.75B

$67.53B → $67.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$24.07	$67,528,064,490	19 / 20
2026-07-25	$24.04	$67,615,710,739	19 / 20
2026-07-26	$24.04	$67,615,710,739	19 / 20
2026-07-27	$24.04	$67,615,710,739	19 / 20
2026-07-28	$24.04	$67,615,710,739	19 / 20
2026-07-29	$24.05	$67,734,155,700	19 / 20
2026-07-30	$24.05	$67,734,155,700	19 / 20
2026-07-31	$24.05	$67,734,155,700	19 / 20
2026-08-01	$23.86	$67,770,466,118	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$23.86	$67,770,466,118	14 / 15
2026-08-03	$23.86	$67,770,466,118	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$24.05	$67,734,155,700	19 / 20
2026-08-05	$24.07	$67,756,139,070	19 / 20
2026-08-06	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-07	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-08	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$24.05	$67,737,069,229	19 / 20
2026-08-10	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-11	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-12	$24.05	$67,737,069,229	19 / 20
2026-08-13	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-15	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-16	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-17	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-18	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-19	$23.88	$67,792,449,485	14 / 15
2026-08-20	$23.88	$67,792,445,907	14 / 15
2026-08-21	$23.87	$67,836,745,908	14 / 15
2026-08-22	$23.87	$67,836,745,908	14 / 15
2026-08-23	$23.87	$67,836,745,908	14 / 15
2026-08-24	$23.87	$67,836,745,908	14 / 15
2026-08-25	$23.87	$67,848,361,889	14 / 15
2026-08-26	$23.87	$67,856,811,889	14 / 15
2026-08-27	$23.87	$67,856,811,889	14 / 15
2026-08-28	$23.87	$67,856,811,889	14 / 15
2026-08-29	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-03	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-04	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-05	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-06	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-07	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-08	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-09	$23.85	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-10	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-11	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-12	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-13	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-14	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-15	$23.88	$67,854,311,889	14 / 15
2026-09-16	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-17	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-18	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-19	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-20	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$23.88	$67,854,485,039	14 / 15
2026-09-22	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-23	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-24	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-25	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-26	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-27	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-28	$23.92	$67,726,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-29	$23.92	$67,717,851,620	14 / 15
2026-09-30	$23.89	$67,699,061,734	14 / 15
2026-10-01	$23.90	$67,757,774,206	14 / 15
2026-10-02	$23.90	$67,758,947,891	14 / 15
2026-10-03	$23.90	$67,758,947,891	14 / 15
2026-10-04	$23.90	$67,758,947,891	14 / 15
2026-10-05	$23.90	$67,758,947,891	14 / 15
2026-10-06	$23.89	$67,715,241,041	14 / 15
2026-10-07	$23.88	$67,683,030,100	14 / 15
2026-10-08	$23.95	$67,773,341,104	14 / 15
2026-10-09	$23.95	$67,773,341,104	14 / 15
2026-10-10	$23.95	$67,773,341,104	14 / 15
2026-10-11	$23.94	$67,754,319,049	14 / 15
2026-10-12	$23.94	$67,754,319,049	14 / 15
2026-10-13	$23.94	$67,745,658,941	14 / 15
2026-10-14	$23.94	$67,745,658,941	14 / 12
2026-10-15	$23.93	$67,745,658,941	14 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	5
2026-06-01	19	5
2026-07-01	20	5
2026-08-01	20	4
2026-09-01	20	4
2026-10-01	19	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Capital One FinancialOct 8 · prior Jul 9

$231.00 → $219.00-5.2%

BarclaysOct 5 · prior Jul 22

$240.00 → $237.00-1.2%

Evercore ISIOct 1

$220.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 28 · prior Jun 29

$254.00 → $260.00+2.4%

$0$143.00$286.00

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at least $0.8 by 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.80 per share
Net income growth to at least $2.17B by 2026-Q1Net income: $3.02B
Operating income growth to at least $2.7B by 2026-Q1Operating income: $7.344B
Manage regulatory challenges without profit harmQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Capital One outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through the integration of the Discover acquisition. The current thesis state is cautious, as management execution is strong, but external factors could weigh heavily on performance.

What's priced into Capital One

The market appears to have priced in a premium compared to peers, indicating expectations for continued growth. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some of the positive outlook may already be reflected in the current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with key priorities, including successful integration of the Discover acquisition and growth in net income. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends show a downward shift in earnings surprises.

What Capital One hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the successful integration of Discover and the ability to maintain income growth. Additionally, external factors such as interest rate changes and performance of sector bellwethers like Visa and Mastercard will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.