Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI)

NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.41+0.87%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Compass Diversified Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	414.88M
EPS	—	0.083
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.68B
EPS	—	0.047
Subsidiary ebitda	$320M–$365Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	0.67

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete sale of Sterno's food service business and record gain in Q2 2026	CODI is improving after selling Sterno's food service business.	Intact	sale not completed or gain not recorded by Q2 2026	Sale completed & gain recorded in Q2 2026 August 2026 news reports the completion of the Sterno sale and associated gain, aligning with the thesis driver. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Smooth CEO transition with stable leadership	The CEO transition is orderly.	Intact	significant leadership disruption or management turnover	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Return to positive free cash flow and improved margins	A primary condition in Compass Diversified Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow yield >= 0% next 4 quarters.	Improving	free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters	Free cash flow yield: 4.23% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20264.23 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: CODI:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue at or above $1.7 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Compass Diversified Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.7 billion.	Broken	total revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $424.042M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.7 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026424,042,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e72c3cd0-596e-450e-b19e-9896819bc318. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.46 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.73B

$1.77B → $1.73B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-05	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.46	$1,768,264,000	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,756,313,400	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,768,264,000	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,745,453,400	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,745,453,400	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,736,059,400	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,736,068,720	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,733,202,267	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	3
2026-06-01	2	3
2026-07-01	3	3
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Compass PointOct 13

$17.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$9.35$18.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Smooth CEO transition with stable leadershipQualitative condition
Return to positive free cash flow and improved marginsFree cash flow yield: 4.23%
Total revenue at or above $1.7 billion in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Compass Diversified Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk turnaround and portfolio-change story, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view remains on watch because financial performance is mixed and recent results have been weaker than the industry cohort.

What's priced into Compass Diversified Holdings

CODI trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to optionality, meaning value depends partly on uncertain future outcomes. The evidence says the current pricing does not fully reflect weak execution quality, so expectations may not account for all of the business fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, erratic earnings, a recent quarter miss, and a 39% estimated miss probability leave execution as a key risk. In 2026-Q2, revenue fell 11.4% year over year while subsidiary adjusted EBITDA grew 12.6%; debt and leverage also declined after proceeds from the Sterno sale were applied to debt. Management has reaffirmed guidance, but delivery on profitable growth, divestitures, and lower fees remains mixed.

What Compass Diversified Holdings hinges on

The near-term case depends in part on whether CODI maintains guidance at its next call, as a cut would signal weaker execution. Over the multi-year view, progress on profitable growth, divestitures, debt reduction, and lower management fees matters, while industrial-sector results from MMM, HON, and VMI may shape the sector backdrop.