CNX Resources (CNX)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.54+2.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CNX Resources’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.11 → 4.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-15
Revenue	—	512.73M
EPS	—	0.716
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.2B
EPS	—	3.202
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.16B
EPS	—	4.13

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital spending near $571M in 2026	A supporting condition in CNX Resources's published investment case. The stated target is ~$571M.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $600M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $142M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$571M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026142,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 15, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $538M in 2026	Free cash flow is expected near $538M in 2026.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $500M in FY26	Free cash flow: $137.518M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$538M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026137,518,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 15, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has stated enhancing cash from operations in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities rose from $233.8M in 2025-Q3 to $297.0M in 2025-Q4, then was $279.5M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering with some fluctuations but generally stable and strong cash flow generation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income stays positive and improves	Net income rose from a loss to $348M.	Improving	Net income falls below $0 in next 4 quarters	Net income: $202.943M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income > $300M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026202,943,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2dd7e402-5d74-421d-831d-11cadbd344fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated net income improvement as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income rose from $196.3M in 2025-Q4 to $348.1M in 2026-Q1, with diluted EPS increasing from $1.28 to $2.18 over the same period. The trajectory shows delivering on profitability improvement, though net income declined to $202.9M in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $1.29B in 2026	A primary condition in CNX Resources's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.29B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.2B in FY26	Revenue: $618.484M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.29B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026618,484,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2dd7e402-5d74-421d-831d-11cadbd344fd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $583.8M in 2025-Q3 to $786.7M in 2026-Q1, then declined to $618.5M in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on revenue growth is persistent, with recent quarters showing mixed delivery: strong growth through early 2026 but a decline in Q2 2026. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.13

$4.10 → $4.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-25	$4.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-26	$4.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-27	$4.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-28	$4.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$4.06	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-30	$4.19	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$4.20	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	$4.20	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-02	$3.99	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-03	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$3.99	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.99	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-08	$4.04	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-09	$4.04	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.04	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-11	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-12	$4.04	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-13	$4.04	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-14	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-15	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-16	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-17	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-18	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-19	$4.26	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-20	$4.17	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$4.14	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$4.14	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-23	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-24	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-25	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-26	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-27	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-28	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-29	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-09-30	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-01	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-02	$4.12	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-03	$4.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-04	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-05	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-06	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-07	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-08	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-09	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-10	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-11	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-12	$4.15	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-13	$4.20	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-14	$4.20	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-15	$4.20	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-16	$4.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-17	$4.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-18	$4.09	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-19	$4.09	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-20	$4.09	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-21	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-22	$4.13	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-23	$4.13	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-24	$4.13	Unavailable	6 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	8	5
2026-06-01	1	8	3
2026-07-01	1	9	3
2026-08-01	1	9	2
2026-09-01	1	9	2
2026-10-01	1	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 16 · prior Jul 15

$35.00 → $34.00-2.9%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior May 27

$42.00 → $38.00-9.5%

ScotiabankOct 14

$34.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$23.10$46.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital spending near $571M in 2026Capital expenditures: $142M
Free cash flow near $538M in 2026Free cash flow: $137.518M
Net income stays positive and improvesNet income: $202.943M
Revenue grows to about $1.29B in 2026Revenue: $618.484M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CNX Resources outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a low-priced energy-sector business with a multi-year view that depends on steady execution rather than a clear turnaround. The thesis state is still uncertain because there is not enough recent financial history to judge it, and the latest revenue and income results were uneven.

What's priced into CNX Resources

CNX is valued cheaply versus peers, while the evidence also flags expectations as stretched and shows an expectations gap. The gap is not fully explained by a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and a turbulent sector, so the market setup is mixed rather than clearly pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and net income may remain uneven: both rose through early 2026, then declined in the second quarter. Operating cash flow has been steadier, and management has repeatedly prioritized revenue, net income, and cash generation. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk; a recent earnings beat and a much improved macro reading offer some support, while the CFO transition adds uncertainty.

What CNX Resources hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on whether management can turn its stated priorities into steadier revenue and earnings while maintaining cash generation. Energy-sector momentum could help if bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, but missed results or lower guidance could weaken that support. CNX’s own next guidance update is also a key swing factor.