ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$32.69-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	127.47M
EPS	—	0.83
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	125.58M
EPS	—	0.858
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	491.01M
EPS	—	3.098
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	529.64M
EPS	—	3.682

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows to at least $3.28 in FY26	ConnectOne Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS near $3.28 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.28 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.80 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.28 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.8 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 67f799f5-88d0-47ab-80b9-c632e28d9519. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net interest margin by reducing costs and raising loan yields	The bank improves profit margins by raising loan yields and cutting costs.	Intact	net interest margin fails to improve over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -18% in next year	A supporting condition in ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline >= -18% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -18% YoY in FY26	Revenue: $192.907M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline >= -18% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 4, 2026192,907,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 67f799f5-88d0-47ab-80b9-c632e28d9519. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.64 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.53B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.64	$525,804,200	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.63	$524,664,200	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.63	$524,664,200	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$3.64	$527,384,200	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.64	$527,384,200	5 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	$3.67	$524,222,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.67	$524,922,000	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows to at least $3.28 in FY26Published status: Broken
Increase net interest margin by reducing costs and raising loan yieldsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -18% in next yearRevenue: $192.907M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a growth-and-efficiency thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year thesis is intact, but the latest earnings miss weakened momentum and lowered confidence in the near-term outlook.

What's priced into ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.

The evidence describes CNOB as cheap versus peers, while also tagging expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence does not show that the full set of weak execution and turbulent conditions is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through the latest three reported quarters, loans and client deposits grew, and net interest margin improved from 3.39% to 3.44%. Expenses fell year over year but were unchanged from the prior quarter; the recent earnings miss and sector headwinds create near-term uncertainty, while confidence in the evidence is low.

What ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on continued loan growth, stronger client relationships, margin expansion, and better expense control. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.