ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$31.59-0.85%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS grows to at least $3.28 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $1.52 vs $3.28 target.
ConnectOne Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS near $3.28 in 2026. The bank improves profit margins by raising loan yields and cutting costs. It has a solid track record with recent earnings beats. The company aims to deliver long-term shareholder value.
Revenue is expected to decline about 18% next year, which could pressure earnings. The bank faces mixed progress on increasing net interest margin. Rising inflation and a stormy market could hurt loan demand and margins.
The stock trades about 11% above our fair value near $29. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 18% next year, which we view as too pessimistic given the bank's earnings growth and margin improvement efforts.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.28 in FY26
Breaks if: net interest margin fails to improve over next 4 quarters
revenue decline exceeds -18% YoY in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a financial institution with a focus on stable growth. The current state reflects strong recent performance and a commitment from management to improve key metrics.
The market appears to price CNOB as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, there is some fragility due to weak execution quality, which could impact future performance.
Management has been successful in increasing net interest margins and growing loans and deposits, which supports a positive fundamental trajectory. The recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could enhance CNOB's prospects, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, CNOB's fundamentals are on track, but the investment thesis is sensitive to sector performance and management execution. Not investment advice.