Cummins (CMI)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$531.33-0.26%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cummins’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

34.54 → 34.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain market share amid competition and geopolitical risks	A supporting condition in Cummins's published investment case. The stated target is stable or growing market share.	Intact	significant market share loss or export revenue decline	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 18.5% in 2026	Profit margins are expected to improve with gross margin guidance raised to as high as 18.5%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 17.75% in FY26	Gross margin: 26.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross margin up to 18.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202626.065348 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1ee2a70d-ed77-4f58-99a2-223d96f868ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026	A primary condition in Cummins's published investment case. The stated target is 8% to 11% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 8% to 11% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20269.418026 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1ee2a70d-ed77-4f58-99a2-223d96f868ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from up 3%-8% in 2025-Q4 to up 10%-13% in 2026-Q2. Second quarter 2026 revenues grew 9% year-over-year to $9.5 billion, supporting the raised guidance. The trajectory is delivering with improving demand in key markets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$34.66

$32.29 → $34.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$41.25B

$40.13B → $41.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$32.29	$40,133,626,090	11 / 18
2026-07-25	$32.29	$40,133,626,090	11 / 18
2026-07-26	$32.29	$40,133,626,090	11 / 18
2026-07-27	$32.29	$40,133,626,090	11 / 18
2026-07-28	$32.29	$40,133,626,090	11 / 18
2026-07-29	$34.20	$40,325,117,871	10 / 14
2026-07-30	$32.29	$40,144,014,190	11 / 19
2026-07-31	$32.29	$40,144,014,190	11 / 19
2026-08-01	$34.20	$40,325,117,871	10 / 15
2026-08-02	$34.20	$40,325,117,871	10 / 15
2026-08-03	$32.29	$40,144,014,190	11 / 19
2026-08-04	$32.29	$40,144,014,190	11 / 19
2026-08-05	$32.33	$40,192,984,020	11 / 19
2026-08-06	$32.29	$40,144,014,190	11 / 19
2026-08-07	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$33.89	$40,884,859,840	11 / 17
2026-08-10	$33.89	$40,884,859,840	11 / 17
2026-08-11	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-13	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$34.57	$40,991,771,283	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$34.66	$41,006,473,549	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$34.66	$41,006,473,549	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$34.54	$40,979,857,458	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$34.54	$40,979,857,458	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$34.54	$40,979,857,458	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$34.54	$40,979,857,458	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$34.55	$40,979,886,870	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$34.55	$40,979,886,870	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$34.55	$40,979,886,870	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$34.55	$40,979,882,887	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$34.55	$40,979,882,887	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$34.55	$40,979,882,887	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$34.54	$40,979,886,811	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$34.60	$41,083,765,240	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$34.60	$41,083,765,240	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$34.64	$41,096,383,666	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$34.59	$41,139,352,315	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$34.59	$41,139,352,315	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$34.59	$41,139,568,981	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$34.58	$41,177,056,808	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$34.58	$41,177,056,808	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$34.58	$41,177,056,808	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$34.58	$41,177,056,808	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$34.58	$41,177,056,808	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$34.59	$41,183,382,661	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$34.66	$41,251,385,806	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	9	1
2026-06-01	14	8	2
2026-07-01	14	7	1
2026-08-01	15	8	1
2026-09-01	15	8	0
2026-10-01	15	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 8 · prior Jun 17

$874.00 → $760.00-13.0%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 5

$894.00 → $779.00-12.9%

UBSSep 30 · prior Aug 5

$835.00 → $741.00-11.3%

$0$491.70$983.40

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain market share amid competition and geopolitical risksQualitative condition
Gross margin near 18.5% in 2026Gross margin: 26.07%
Increase revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026Revenue growth: 9.42%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cummins outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable company with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis is intact, but recent performance has led to a medium level of confidence.

What's priced into Cummins

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below what is justified. CMI is trading at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth is already expected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing revenue and improving margins, with recent results showing strong revenue growth. However, the EBITDA margin trajectory is mixed, and there are ongoing challenges in the zero-emissions segment.

What Cummins hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT, which could influence CMI's momentum. Additionally, any changes in guidance from CMI could impact credibility and investor sentiment.