Cipher Digital, Inc. (CIFR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.94-4.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cipher Digital, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	113.29M
EPS	—	-0.141
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	212.32M
EPS	—	-1.297
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	806.93M
EPS	—	-0.286

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and capital well	A supporting condition in Cipher Digital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new large debt or legal issues.	Under Pressure	New major debt or legal problems arise	$850M new debt issued vs no new large debt target CIFR priced $850M 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032 on Oct 14, 2026, with a $150M greenshoe option. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operations improves to positive levels	Cipher Digital is improving cash flow from operations to $91.5M.	Broken	cash from operations falls below $50M next year	Cash from operations: $-243.538M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026-243,538,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income losses shrink significantly	Net losses fell from $734M to $114M.	Under Pressure	net loss worsens beyond -$200M next year	Net income: $-267.529M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss better than -$150M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026-267,529,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2430fbb-e825-4c36-aca3-b86543354ff6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes near $35M	A primary condition in Cipher Digital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $30M.	Broken	revenue falls below $25M next year	Revenue: $24.837M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202624,837,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2430fbb-e825-4c36-aca3-b86543354ff6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.29

Unavailable → $-0.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.81B

$0.87B → $0.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$873,488,390	3 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$873,488,390	3 / 12
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$873,488,390	3 / 12
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$873,488,390	3 / 12
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$873,488,390	3 / 12
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$798,872,236	4 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$853,789,640	4 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$853,789,640	4 / 12
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$853,789,640	4 / 12
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$853,789,640	4 / 12
2026-08-03	$-0.16	$798,872,236	5 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$853,789,640	4 / 12
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$850,450,390	4 / 12
2026-08-06	$-0.16	$798,872,236	5 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.28	$795,384,990	5 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$855,725,350	4 / 14
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$855,725,350	4 / 14
2026-08-10	$-0.28	$795,384,990	5 / 9
2026-08-11	$-0.28	$795,384,990	5 / 9
2026-08-12	$-0.28	$795,384,990	5 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$862,129,580	3 / 14
2026-08-14	$-0.28	$795,384,990	5 / 9
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$795,384,990	4 / 10
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$795,384,990	4 / 10
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$795,384,990	4 / 10
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$795,384,990	4 / 10
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$795,384,990	4 / 10
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$800,496,459	4 / 10
2026-08-21	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-22	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-23	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-24	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-25	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-26	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-27	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-28	$-0.29	$800,496,459	5 / 10
2026-08-29	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-08-30	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-08-31	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-01	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-02	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-03	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-04	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-05	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-06	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-07	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-08	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-09	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-10	$-0.27	$801,153,539	5 / 10
2026-09-11	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-12	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-13	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-14	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-15	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-16	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-17	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-18	$-0.27	$801,151,976	5 / 10
2026-09-19	$-0.27	$800,131,272	5 / 10
2026-09-20	$-0.27	$802,584,368	5 / 10
2026-09-21	$-0.27	$802,584,368	5 / 11
2026-09-22	$-0.28	$806,083,181	5 / 11
2026-09-23	$-0.28	$806,083,181	5 / 11
2026-09-24	$-0.27	$809,706,807	6 / 11
2026-09-25	$-0.27	$809,706,807	6 / 11
2026-09-26	$-0.27	$809,721,807	6 / 11
2026-09-27	$-0.29	$803,728,388	6 / 12
2026-09-28	$-0.29	$803,728,388	6 / 12
2026-09-29	$-0.29	$803,728,388	6 / 12
2026-09-30	$-0.29	$803,728,388	6 / 12
2026-10-01	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-02	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-03	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-04	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-05	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-06	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-07	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-08	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-09	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-10	$-0.29	$803,728,564	6 / 12
2026-10-11	$-0.28	$807,720,830	6 / 12
2026-10-12	$-0.28	$807,720,830	6 / 12
2026-10-13	$-0.28	$807,720,830	6 / 12
2026-10-14	$-0.28	$807,720,830	6 / 12
2026-10-15	$-0.28	$807,720,830	6 / 12
2026-10-16	$-0.28	$807,720,830	5 / 12
2026-10-17	$-0.28	$807,720,830	5 / 12
2026-10-18	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-19	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-20	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-21	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-22	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-23	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12
2026-10-24	$-0.29	$806,930,354	5 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	0
2026-06-01	16	0
2026-07-01	17	0
2026-08-01	17	0
2026-09-01	20	2
2026-10-01	20	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and capital wellPublished status: Under Pressure
Cash from operations improves to positive levelsPublished status: Broken
Net income losses shrink significantlyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue stabilizes near $35MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

5.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-72.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cipher Digital, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making growth story tied to data center development and AI leases, rather than an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view remains on watch: project and lease execution is on track, but recent financial performance is weak and management signals have become more restrictive.

What's priced into Cipher Digital, Inc.

CIFR carries a 13.61% premium to peers, while valuation confidence is low and the main source of possible valuation difference is future business potential. The evidence does not specify exactly what growth expectations the market assumes, so the expectations gap is hard to judge; the low fragility reading does not remove the risks from losses and weak results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent quarter misses and a 51% estimated chance of another miss make execution a key concern. Over the multi-year view, early delivery of data center capacity and added contracted lease revenue support the growth case, while credit facilities and debt offerings fund development but add financing obligations.

What Cipher Digital, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on CIFR keeping projects on schedule and securing more AI data center leases, while managing the funding needed to build them. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates and continued strong results from sector bellwethers are possible favorable factors, but the evidence does not establish that either will occur.