Chord Energy (CHRD)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$149.49+1.27%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Chord Energy beat Q1 earnings with EPS of $4.56, 31% above estimates. The company targets free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion in 2026. Revenue guidance for 2026 is between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion next quarter. The stock trades cheap with a P/E of 11.7 versus peers at 16.2.
The recent sharp selloff shows investor concern despite no guidance cuts. Analysts expect revenue to decline about 1% next year. The company is loss-making and faces sector headwinds. Free cash flow and revenue could fall short of targets.
The market prices Chord about 9% below our fair value near $127. Analysts expect about -1% revenue growth, reflecting cautious views. Our fair value is 26% below the Street median, indicating a more conservative outlook.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $1.6 billion in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $16 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the energy sector. The current thesis reflects a recovery phase, with management executing on key priorities despite some mixed results.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating a perception of CHRD as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation remains justified given the current sector conditions.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management focused on advancing their drilling program and maintaining disciplined capital expenditures. There is a moderate risk of missing guidance, but the overall trajectory is positive.
The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders. Additionally, any changes in guidance from management could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company aims to generate about $1.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow for FY26. However, it recently missed earnings expectations, which raises concerns. This mixed outlook reflects both strong financial goals and recent performance challenges.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Quarterly revenue falls below $1.2 billion in Q2 2026
In the next 1 to 3 years, CHRD's performance will depend on its ability to execute on its priorities and navigate the energy sector's dynamics. Not investment advice.