Chord Energy (CHRD)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$158.13+5.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chord Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+26.4% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.24 → 19.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	6.204
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.38B
EPS	—	23.034
Capital expenditure	$1.4B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.87B
EPS	—	19.264

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion in FY26	Revenue guidance for 2026 is between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion next quarter.	Intact	Capex exceeds $1.6 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $404.218M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1350-1450 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026404,218,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS around $20.64 in FY26	Chord Energy beat Q1 earnings with EPS of $4.56, 31% above estimates.	Broken	EPS falls below $16 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $1.4 billion in FY26	The company targets free cash flow of at least $1.4 billion in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $711.936M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1400 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026711,936,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion in Q2 2026	Revenue guidance for 2026 is between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion next quarter.	Intact	Quarterly revenue falls below $1.2 billion in Q2 2026	Revenue: $2.173B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1355 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262,172,685,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7c0fdec5-4efd-4094-9817-5f344f010812. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$19.26

$14.67 → $19.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.87B

$5.28B → $5.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.67	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-25	$14.67	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-26	$14.67	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-27	$14.67	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-28	$14.67	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-29	$14.73	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-07-30	$13.87	$5,248,993,744	8 / 5
2026-07-31	$14.73	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-08-01	$14.73	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-08-02	$14.73	$5,277,438,530	14 / 6
2026-08-03	$13.87	$5,248,993,744	8 / 5
2026-08-04	$13.87	$5,248,993,744	8 / 5
2026-08-05	$13.87	$5,248,993,744	8 / 5
2026-08-06	$13.87	$5,248,993,744	8 / 5
2026-08-07	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-09	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-10	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-11	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-12	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-13	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-15	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-16	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-17	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-18	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-19	$13.58	$5,215,357,381	8 / 5
2026-08-20	$13.18	$5,479,177,475	8 / 5
2026-08-21	$13.29	$5,516,586,079	8 / 5
2026-08-22	$13.44	$5,534,586,079	8 / 5
2026-08-23	$13.44	$5,534,586,079	8 / 5
2026-08-24	$13.44	$5,534,586,079	8 / 5
2026-08-25	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-26	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-30	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-08-31	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-09-01	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-09-02	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-09-03	$13.50	$5,598,313,352	8 / 5
2026-09-04	$13.78	$5,519,245,572	8 / 5
2026-09-05	$13.78	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-06	$13.78	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-07	$13.78	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-08	$13.94	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-09	$13.94	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-10	$13.94	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-11	$14.02	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-12	$14.02	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-13	$14.02	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-14	$14.02	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-15	$14.30	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-16	$14.29	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-17	$14.29	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-18	$14.29	$5,519,245,572	9 / 5
2026-09-19	$14.86	$5,491,678,906	9 / 5
2026-09-20	$14.97	$5,594,011,297	10 / 5
2026-09-21	$14.97	$5,594,011,297	10 / 6
2026-09-22	$15.02	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-23	$15.02	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-24	$15.24	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-25	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-26	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-27	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-28	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 5
2026-09-29	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 6
2026-09-30	$15.37	$5,573,413,631	10 / 6
2026-10-01	$15.33	$5,545,005,938	10 / 6
2026-10-02	$15.33	$5,545,005,938	10 / 6
2026-10-03	$15.34	$5,542,882,861	10 / 6
2026-10-04	$15.58	$5,542,882,861	10 / 6
2026-10-05	$15.58	$5,542,882,861	10 / 6
2026-10-06	$15.64	$5,548,790,554	10 / 6
2026-10-07	$15.89	$5,565,312,369	10 / 5
2026-10-08	$15.86	$5,565,312,369	10 / 5
2026-10-09	$15.86	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-10	$15.86	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-11	$16.32	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-12	$16.32	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-13	$16.75	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-14	$16.75	$5,554,051,150	10 / 5
2026-10-15	$16.71	$5,551,589,611	10 / 5
2026-10-16	$17.93	$5,571,753,832	10 / 5
2026-10-17	$17.93	$5,571,753,832	10 / 5
2026-10-18	$18.23	$5,571,748,753	10 / 5
2026-10-19	$18.23	$5,571,748,753	10 / 5
2026-10-20	$18.55	$5,571,748,753	10 / 5
2026-10-21	$19.08	$5,845,907,107	10 / 6
2026-10-22	$19.07	$5,845,907,107	10 / 6
2026-10-23	$19.00	$5,845,684,599	11 / 6
2026-10-24	$19.26	$5,873,177,932	11 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	3
2026-06-01	13	3
2026-07-01	13	2
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	14	3
2026-10-01	15	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 20 · prior Oct 6

$193.00 → $197.00+2.1%

Roth CapitalOct 19 · prior Jul 15

$145.00 → $165.00+13.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jun 29

$169.00 → $178.00+5.3%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 2

$175.00 → $174.00-0.6%

ScotiabankOct 14

$192.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Sep 16

$180.00 → $195.00+8.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 5 · prior May 27

$175.00 → $179.00+2.3%

$0$108.35$216.70

5 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex between $1.35 billion and $1.45 billion in FY26Capital expenditures: $404.218M
EPS around $20.64 in FY26Published status: Broken
Free cash flow at least $1.4 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $711.936M
Revenue between $1.355 billion and $1.445 billion in Q2 2026Revenue: $2.173B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chord Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CHRD is a cyclical energy business with a multi-year thesis tied to operating performance, capital discipline, and shareholder returns. The thesis is currently intact, and its signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence is medium.

What's priced into Chord Energy

Valuation evidence is mixed: CHRD is described as cheap versus peers, while its premium-versus-peer measure points the other way. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the priced-in assessment is justified rather than fragile; the main pressure flagged is a turbulent sector regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, but CHRD missed its most recent quarter and has a run of consecutive earnings misses. Management has continued shareholder returns and advanced its longer-lateral drilling program, while the stated capital-spending discipline has a behind status despite an unchanged annual outlook and a quarter of spending below midpoint guidance.

What Chord Energy hinges on

The near-term thesis depends on whether CHRD avoids a guidance cut and improves its record of earnings delivery. Over the multi-year view, continued capital discipline and progress scaling four-mile wells matter, as does the energy sector backdrop: stronger results and guidance from COP, EOG, and OXY would support the sector tailwind, while weaker updates could erode it.