Frost Bank (CFR)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$157.05-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Frost Bank’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.88 → 12.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	628.11M
EPS	—	2.853
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.42B
EPS	—	11.009
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.57B
EPS	—	12.045

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $9.92 in 2025	A primary condition in Frost Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.92 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $9.92 in 2025-Q4	Diluted EPS: $2.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.92 USD per share. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20262.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d747bb43-feae-4058-8ac5-ac936d08ad13. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income at or above $170.99 million in Q1 2026	Profit and net income improve with strong cost control.	Intact	Net income falls below $170.99 million in 2026-Q1	Net income: $172.059M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=170987000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026172,059,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d747bb43-feae-4058-8ac5-ac936d08ad13. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in Frost Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.33% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265.326975 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d747bb43-feae-4058-8ac5-ac936d08ad13. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.05

$11.10 → $12.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.57B

$2.51B → $2.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-25	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-26	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-27	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-28	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-29	$11.10	$2,511,851,040	12 / 10
2026-07-30	$11.14	$2,527,229,148	10 / 7
2026-07-31	$11.38	$2,543,608,210	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$11.24	$2,521,293,210	12 / 10
2026-08-02	$11.56	$2,538,637,480	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-04	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-05	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-06	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-07	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-08	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-09	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-10	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-11	$11.72	$2,539,803,190	13 / 11
2026-08-12	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-13	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-14	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	10 / 7
2026-08-15	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	11 / 8
2026-08-16	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	11 / 8
2026-08-17	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	11 / 8
2026-08-18	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	11 / 8
2026-08-19	$11.57	$2,544,667,374	11 / 8
2026-08-20	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-21	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-22	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-23	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-24	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-25	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-26	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-27	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-28	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-29	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$11.70	$2,550,815,210	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$11.71	$2,553,360,665	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$11.71	$2,553,360,665	11 / 8
2026-09-04	$11.71	$2,553,360,665	11 / 8
2026-09-05	$11.71	$2,553,236,938	11 / 8
2026-09-06	$11.71	$2,553,236,938	11 / 8
2026-09-07	$11.71	$2,553,236,938	11 / 8
2026-09-08	$11.71	$2,553,236,938	11 / 8
2026-09-09	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-10	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-11	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-12	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-13	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-14	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-15	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-16	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-17	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-18	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-19	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-20	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$11.81	$2,561,882,737	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$11.87	$2,568,174,879	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$11.88	$2,569,751,516	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$11.88	$2,569,751,516	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.89	$2,570,477,107	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.89	$2,570,477,107	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.89	$2,570,477,107	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.89	$2,570,477,107	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.89	$2,571,262,924	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.89	$2,571,262,924	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.89	$2,571,262,924	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.87	$2,572,353,833	11 / 9
2026-10-03	$11.87	$2,572,353,833	11 / 9
2026-10-04	$11.87	$2,572,353,833	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$11.87	$2,572,353,833	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$11.89	$2,571,899,287	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$11.91	$2,571,899,287	11 / 9
2026-10-08	$11.95	$2,571,899,287	11 / 9
2026-10-09	$11.98	$2,571,890,196	11 / 9
2026-10-10	$11.98	$2,571,890,196	11 / 9
2026-10-11	$12.00	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$12.00	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$12.00	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$12.00	$2,573,462,924	11 / 9
2026-10-15	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 9
2026-10-16	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-17	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-18	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-19	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-20	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-21	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-22	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-23	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8
2026-10-24	$12.05	$2,573,462,924	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	3
2026-06-01	6	6	3
2026-07-01	6	9	4
2026-08-01	5	7	3
2026-09-01	6	8	3
2026-10-01	6	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14

$167.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 9

$175.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior May 5

$149.00 → $166.00+11.4%

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Sep 8

$200.00 → $201.00+0.5%

$0$110.55$221.10

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $9.92 in 2025Diluted EPS: $2.70 per share
Net income at or above $170.99 million in Q1 2026Net income: $172.059M
Revenue growth at or above 7% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Frost Bank outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CFR is a bank with a growth-oriented, multi-year thesis rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, recent financial performance is in the top half of its industry, and company quality has improved, but earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into Frost Bank

CFR trades at a 1.74 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral at 0.01. The valuation evidence labels that premium as durable and the current pricing as justified, with low overall fragility rather than a broad stack of risks already priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show execution on stated priorities: average loans grew 7.4%, average deposits grew 2.1%, and diluted earnings per share rose 13% year over year through 2026 Q2. Two recent earnings beats support the thesis, but a litigation filing and a sector backdrop marked as a headwind add uncertainty; the stated near-term miss probability is low.

What Frost Bank hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued loan and deposit growth, earnings progress, and maintaining strong capital and liquidity. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be negative factors, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.