Celcuity, Inc. (CELC)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$65.25-0.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Celcuity, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	22.42M
EPS	—	-1.211
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	23.34M
EPS	—	-5.139
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	317.93M
EPS	—	-2.468

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve earnings to positive by FY 2027	A primary condition in Celcuity, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 0.74 USD per share.	Broken	EPS remains negative through FY 2027	Diluted EPS: $-1.44 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 0.74 USD per share. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 13, 2026-1.44 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 77d0a5e0-04ac-4d6b-aa36-23c8888a9cd9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Finance operations through 2027 with cash and debt	The company raised $500 million to fund operations through 2027.	Improving	Cash and debt run out before end of 2027	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments increased from $387.1M at 2026-Q1 to $754.0M at 2026-Q2, boosted by $557.2M net proceeds from convertible notes offering. Management expects these resources plus debt drawdowns to fund operations through 2027, indicating delivery on liquidity management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Launch gedatolisib commercially in Q3 2026	Celcuity plans to launch gedatolisib in Q3 2026.	Recovered	Launch delayed beyond Q3 2026	FDA approval 2026-07-14 vs Q3 2026 target FDA approved REVTORPYK on July 14, 2026; company plans late Q3 shipments. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management confirmed FDA approval in July 2026 and commercial launch activities commenced immediately, with shipments expected late Q3 2026. This trajectory matches management's stated timeline and shows delivery on the launch commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Announce and execute share buyback program	They also announced a share buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program canceled or not executed	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.47

$-0.50 → $-2.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.32B

$0.39B → $0.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$-0.50	$392,545,591	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$393,210,100	2 / 10
2026-08-01	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$393,210,100	2 / 10
2026-08-03	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$393,210,100	2 / 10
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$393,210,100	2 / 10
2026-08-10	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.50	$392,372,864	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$-1.51	$386,759,818	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$-1.47	$371,350,727	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-1.66	$357,321,500	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-2.17	$329,777,455	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$-2.15	$329,777,455	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$-2.15	$329,777,455	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$-2.15	$329,777,455	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$-2.15	$329,777,455	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$-2.35	$325,595,636	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$-2.40	$322,413,818	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$-2.40	$322,413,818	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$-2.47	$317,929,333	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-2.47	$317,929,342	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	0
2026-07-01	12	0
2026-08-01	12	0
2026-09-01	13	0
2026-10-01	13	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 22

$140.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$77.00$154.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve earnings to positive by FY 2027Published status: Broken
Finance operations through 2027 with cash and debtQualitative condition
Announce and execute share buyback programQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Celcuity, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: the launch is progressing on schedule, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Celcuity, Inc.

The evidence snapshot does not provide a valuation measure or clear market expectations, so whether CELC is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around a loss-making business.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the August earnings miss and a high estimated chance of another miss make results a key risk. Gedatolisib received FDA approval in July, and launch activities began, with shipments expected late in the third quarter; cash and short-term investments also rose after a convertible-notes offering, with management expecting resources to fund operations through 2027.

What Celcuity, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on commercial execution for gedatolisib and progress in expanded first-line trials. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add risk, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.