Celanese (CE)

NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$47.71+1.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Celanese’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.32 → 6.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$1.35–$1.75non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.33B
EPS	—	1.16
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.04B
EPS	—	6.021
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	10B
EPS	—	6.19

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities reaches at least $76M in Q1 2026	Celanese aims to grow cash from operations to $76M in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	cash from operating activities falls below $50M in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $209M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=76000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026209,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches $3.00 per share in full year 2026	The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to $3.00 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $2.50 for full year 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3.00 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 5, 20261.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 960aa801-f0cb-4dee-aec3-6cb1a596ba30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $44M in Q1 2026	Net income improved to $44M in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	net income falls below $25M in 2026-Q1	Net income: $125M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=44000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026125,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 960aa801-f0cb-4dee-aec3-6cb1a596ba30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $214M in Q1 2026	Operating income rose to $214M in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	operating income falls below $150M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $276M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=214000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026276,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 960aa801-f0cb-4dee-aec3-6cb1a596ba30. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.19

$6.42 → $6.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.00B

$10.09B → $10.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-25	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-26	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-27	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-28	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-29	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$6.59	$10,045,232,784	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-08-01	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-08-02	$6.42	$10,094,100,970	15 / 14
2026-08-03	$6.59	$10,045,232,784	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$6.59	$10,045,232,784	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$6.59	$10,045,232,784	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$6.59	$10,045,232,784	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$6.17	$9,972,360,060	15 / 14
2026-08-09	$6.17	$9,972,360,060	15 / 14
2026-08-10	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-11	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$6.34	$9,943,847,678	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$6.31	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$6.29	$10,035,792,670	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$6.28	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$6.32	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$6.32	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$6.32	$10,014,139,825	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$6.32	$10,017,573,159	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$6.31	$10,012,927,969	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.31	$10,012,927,969	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.30	$10,011,869,561	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$6.30	$10,011,869,561	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$6.30	$10,011,869,561	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$6.30	$10,011,869,561	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$6.30	$10,011,869,561	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$6.29	$10,013,202,894	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$6.20	$9,988,069,561	10 / 12
2026-10-15	$6.20	$9,988,069,561	10 / 12
2026-10-16	$6.20	$9,988,069,561	10 / 12
2026-10-17	$6.20	$9,988,069,561	10 / 12
2026-10-18	$6.20	$9,988,036,227	10 / 12
2026-10-19	$6.20	$9,988,036,227	10 / 12
2026-10-20	$6.20	$9,988,036,227	10 / 12
2026-10-21	$6.18	$10,002,612,240	10 / 12
2026-10-22	$6.19	$10,002,478,907	10 / 12
2026-10-23	$6.19	$10,002,478,907	10 / 12
2026-10-24	$6.19	$10,002,478,907	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	7
2026-06-01	10	6
2026-07-01	11	6
2026-08-01	11	6
2026-09-01	11	6
2026-10-01	11	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior May 11

$68.00 → $46.00-32.4%

BarclaysOct 12

$49.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$37.40$74.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities reaches at least $76M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
EPS reaches $3.00 per share in full year 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Net income grows to at least $44M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income improves to at least $214M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Celanese outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical chemicals business with a recovery and execution-dependent long-term thesis, not a steady compounder. The thesis has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but remains in a watch state because recent performance trails its industry cohort and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Celanese

The valuation evidence is mixed: CE is marked cheap versus peers, yet the valuation model also shows a premium versus peers, with low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may leave limited room for disappointment; the evidence does not show concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven in a weak sector, and recent quarters have included misses despite an August earnings beat. Over the multi-year view, growth in Engineered Materials and Acetyl Chain, footprint changes, and improved operating income support progress, while free cash flow has improved but delivery on cash generation remains mixed.

What Celanese hinges on

The next guidance update is a key near-term test, since a cut could renew estimate reductions. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued growth in the two priority segments, sustained cost savings and cash generation, and whether materials-sector bellwethers keep reporting strength rather than weakness.