Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.99+1.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cadre Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	206.17M
EPS	—	0.442
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$736M–$758M	759.37M
EPS	—	1.002
Capital expenditure	$10M–$14M	—
EBITDA	$139M–$144Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	809.01M
EPS	—	1.468

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $136M and $141M in 2026	A primary condition in Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$138.5M.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $136M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital spending between $10M and $14M in 2026	The company plans $10 million to $14 million in capital spending.	Intact	Capex falls outside $10M to $14M range in FY26	Capital expenditures: $3.453M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$12M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263,453,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $3.1 million in 2026-Q1 and $3.3 million in 2026-Q2, totaling $6.4 million for the first half of 2026. Management maintains full-year 2026 capex guidance of $10 million to $14 million. The trajectory is consistent with the stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches $736M to $758M in 2026	A primary condition in Cadre Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$747M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $736M in FY26	Revenue: $207.126M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$747M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026207,126,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2d26104f-9c65-401f-97d4-b8761ee1742c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.81B

$0.79B → $0.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$787,558,800	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$787,558,800	1 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$787,558,800	1 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$787,558,800	1 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$787,558,800	1 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$788,492,960	2 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$788,465,633	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$788,492,960	2 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$788,492,960	2 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$788,465,633	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$788,465,633	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$788,465,633	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$788,465,633	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$788,465,639	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$809,097,150	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$809,097,150	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$809,006,315	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$809,006,315	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$809,006,332	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	6	0
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	0
2026-10-01	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $136M and $141M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital spending between $10M and $14M in 2026Capital expenditures: $3.453M
Revenue reaches $736M to $758M in 2026Revenue: $207.126M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cadre Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and acquisition-led industrial business with robust earnings quality and stable management. The long-term thesis is intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after earnings misses.

What's priced into Cadre Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes CDRE as cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding; however, the evidence says pricing is justified and flags low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA are tracking management’s raised 2026 guidance, helped by strong demand and acquisitions. Capital spending remains within its stated plan so far, but recent earnings misses and an erratic surprise record temper the otherwise neutral performance picture.

What Cadre Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is a guidance cut, which could prompt lower analyst estimates. The sector backdrop is a headwind, so results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either sustain or weaken sector support for CDRE.