Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$29.12-1.82%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Cadre aims for revenue near $747 million in 2026. Profit targets are $136 million to $141 million. The company plans $10 million to $14 million in capital spending. Backlog growth supports future sales.
Recent earnings missed forecasts and guidance was cut. Key directors left recently. Revenue growth is slower than expected. These raise doubts about execution.
Price is about 12% above our fair value near $26. Analysts expect 15.5% revenue growth. Our view is slightly more cautious on growth.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $136M in FY26
Breaks if: Capex falls outside $10M to $14M range in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $736M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis is intact, supported by management's guidance and recent performance, despite some near-term risks.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with CDRE being seen as cheap compared to its peers. The expectations gap suggests that the market is not overly optimistic, allowing room for potential positive surprises.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and adjusted EBITDA targets for 2026, indicating a positive trajectory. However, there is a mixed status on capital expenditures, which could introduce some uncertainty in execution.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could enhance CDRE's momentum, while any misses could pose risks to its growth outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company raised its revenue guidance for 2026. This supports a positive outlook for growth. However, there was a recent earnings miss, which poses a threat to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, CDRE's fundamentals are stable, but its future performance will depend significantly on broader industry trends. Not investment advice.