CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.21+0.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CareDx, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	123.51M
EPS	—	0.231
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	495.12M
EPS	—	1.198
EBITDA	$66M–$78Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	526.02M
EPS	—	1.291

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete merger with Naveris, Inc.	The Naveris merger will help expand its business.	Intact	Merger is not completed or significantly delayed	Merger completed on 2026-07-07 vs target by end of 2026 CareDx filed an 8-K reporting the completion of its acquisition of Naveris, Inc. on July 7, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced the merger agreement with Naveris in 2026-Q1 and completed the acquisition by 2026-Q2. This strategic M&A activity is delivering as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $456 million in 2026	CareDx grows revenue about 10% a year to $456 million in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $447 million in FY26	Revenue: $131.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$456 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026131,948,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fc43e289-9f30-4633-99d8-05ad605adf96. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew 52% year-over-year to $132 million in 2026-Q2 from $87 million in 2025-Q2. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance twice, from $447M-$465M in 2026-Q1 to $490M-$500M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and upward guidance revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Execute $100 million share buyback program	A supporting condition in CareDx, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $100 million repurchased.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized a $100 million stock repurchase program in April 2026, reiterated in Q2. No share buyback volumes reported yet, so delivery is pending but the capital allocation commitment is clear. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.13 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.53B

$0.48B → $0.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.13	$481,281,590	5 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$481,267,839	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$481,267,839	3 / 5
2026-08-02	$1.29	$504,868,860	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.29	$504,868,860	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.29	$504,868,860	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.35	$518,015,840	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.33	$512,583,140	5 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.35	$524,015,840	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.35	$524,015,840	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.35	$524,015,840	6 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.35	$524,015,840	6 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.35	$524,015,840	6 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$504,877,551	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$524,022,808	4 / 5
2026-09-03	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.33	$526,345,700	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.33	$526,335,128	5 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$525,964,324	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$525,964,331	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$525,964,331	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$526,020,617	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$526,020,617	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$526,020,617	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$526,020,617	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	4
2026-06-01	3	4
2026-07-01	3	4
2026-08-01	4	4
2026-09-01	5	3
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Revenue reaches about $456 million in 2026Revenue: $131.948M
Execute $100 million share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CareDx, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-growth, loss-making healthcare business, so the multi-year view depends on continued growth and progress toward stronger earnings quality. The thesis is intact, supported by recent results, though risk remains elevated and management execution is neutral overall.

What's priced into CareDx, Inc.

The valuation is stretched, with CDNA trading at a substantial premium to peers and a re-rating identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is positive, but the evidence snapshot does not specify exactly which growth or earnings assumptions are embedded in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results show strong momentum: second-quarter revenue rose 52% year over year, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance twice. The company completed the Naveris acquisition, while the announced share repurchase program has not yet reported any activity; a prior deep miss and recent peer misses remain risks.

What CareDx, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth and delivering against the raised guidance without a reversal that could damage management credibility. Near term, weakening employment data could pressure cyclical healthcare names, while continued strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.