Ceribell, Inc. (CBLL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$27.13-0.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ceribell, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	31.72M
EPS	—	-0.44
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$114M–$117M	115.54M
EPS	—	-1.973
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	147.1M
EPS	—	-1.608

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit improves to at least $23.12 million in 2026-Q1	Gross profit improved from $18.68M in 2025-Q2 to $23.12M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $23.12 million in 2026-Q1	Gross profit: $25.938M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.12 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 202625,938,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 208c360d-f77f-46a2-ba39-0cfc18d0ae40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating losses reduce from -$20.75 million in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Ceribell, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss less negative than -$20.75 million.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$20.75 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $-19.981M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$20.75 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 10, 2026-19,981,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 208c360d-f77f-46a2-ba39-0cfc18d0ae40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses increased from $33.6 million in 2025-Q4 to $45.9 million in 2026-Q2, while net loss grew from $13.6 million to $19.3 million. Despite management focus, operating losses have increased due to investments and legal costs, indicating limited progress in reducing losses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $112 million in 2026	A primary condition in Ceribell, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $112 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $112 million in FY26	Revenue: $28.097M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $112 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202628,097,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 208c360d-f77f-46a2-ba39-0cfc18d0ae40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $21.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $28.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 33% increase. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $111-$115 million in 2025-Q4 to $114-$117 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with consistent revenue growth and upward guidance revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.61

$-1.10 → $-1.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.15B

$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-07-25	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-07-29	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-07-30	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-03	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-07	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$-1.10	$145,857,810	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$-1.54	$147,069,240	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$-1.15	$145,891,491	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$-1.56	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$-1.61	$147,099,032	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$-1.61	$147,102,444	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$-1.61	$147,106,007	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$-1.61	$147,106,007	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$-1.61	$147,102,594	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit improves to at least $23.12 million in 2026-Q1Gross profit: $25.938M
Operating losses reduce from -$20.75 million in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least $112 million in 2026Revenue: $28.097M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ceribell, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business, not a proven profitable compounder: it is loss-making, and its recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with management delivering revenue and gross-margin progress but limited progress in reducing losses.

What's priced into Ceribell, Inc.

CBLL is expensive versus peers, with a premium that the evidence links to optionality, or the possibility of future growth. The expectations gap is sizable, but model confidence is low; the evidence says the expensive valuation is not paired with the full combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and higher 2026 guidance support momentum: revenue rose 33% year over year in the latest compared quarters, and gross margin improved from 88% to 92%. However, operating expenses and net losses increased, while a recent earnings miss and a run of misses make execution a key concern; the evidence gives little detail on when losses might narrow.

What Ceribell, Inc. hinges on

The unfavorable case is a reversal of recently raised guidance, which would also damage management credibility, or further weakening in jobs data that increases recession concerns for cyclical businesses. The favorable case is continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare sector bellwethers, alongside CBLL sustaining revenue growth and margin gains.