Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.30+0.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cathay General Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	234.81M
EPS	—	1.522
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	231.77M
EPS	—	1.467
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	899.76M
EPS	—	5.605
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	954.09M
EPS	—	6.183

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS must reach target	A primary condition in Cathay General Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.66.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.66 by December 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.66. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 7, 20261.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 28d0f102-4518-46c0-87aa-d9d8fac823a6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth must stay strong	Cathay General Bancorp grows operating income steadily.	Intact	Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year	Operating income: $126.783M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 7, 2026126,783,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share buyback program must expand	The bank is expanding its share buyback program to $200 million.	Under Pressure	Buyback authorization does not increase to $200M by Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.18

$5.90 → $6.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.95B

Unavailable → $0.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.90	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$5.89	$927,573,800	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$5.89	$927,573,800	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$5.89	$927,573,800	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$5.89	$927,573,800	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$5.91	$930,813,800	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$5.91	$930,813,800	5 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	$5.91	$930,813,800	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$5.91	$930,813,800	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$5.91	$930,813,800	5 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-09	$5.93	$931,593,800	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	$5.93	$931,593,800	5 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	$5.93	$931,593,800	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$5.94	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$5.95	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$5.95	$929,063,167	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$5.98	$930,996,500	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$6.18	$954,088,333	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$6.18	$954,088,333	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	3	1
2026-06-01	1	3	1
2026-07-01	1	3	1
2026-08-01	1	3	1
2026-09-01	1	4	1
2026-10-01	1	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS must reach targetDiluted EPS: $1.37 per share
Operating income growth must stay strongOperating income: $126.783M
Share buyback program must expandPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cathay General Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CATY is a regional bank with a steady, execution-led thesis rather than a high-growth story. The multi-year thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and recent performance is mixed after an October earnings miss.

What's priced into Cathay General Bancorp

Valuation is neutral overall, with CATY at a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is somewhat positive, while recent valuation measures have eased; the evidence does not show that strong execution is fully assumed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the earnings miss and a recent run of peer misses raise the chance of further estimate pressure, though the stated miss risk remains low. Over the multi-year view, rising net interest margin and net interest income, alongside lower non-performing assets despite loan growth, support the execution story; sector conditions remain a headwind.

What Cathay General Bancorp hinges on

The thesis depends on CATY maintaining credit quality and continuing to expand margins through franchise execution. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued strong results and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.