Maplebear Inc. (CART)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.44+9.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Maplebear Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.97 → 2.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 24 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$320M–$340Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.12B
EPS	—	0.684
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.26B
EPS	—	2.333
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.71B
EPS	—	2.965

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage competitive pricing and legal challenges	A primary condition in Maplebear Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable or improving gross margin near current levels.	Intact	Gross margin falls significantly below 8% next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improvement to at least $182 million	Profit margins improve with operating income rising to $182 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $150 million next year	Operating income: $143M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$182 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026143,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a2ff754c-5bd7-4ec8-aa08-bb74fdd45e0d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew 19% year-over-year to $313M in 2026-Q2, operating cash flow increased 143% to $493M, and net income showed mixed trends. Management emphasizes driving efficiencies and reinvesting in growth, with financials showing delivering on profitability expansion and cash flow improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of about 12% per year	Maplebear grows revenue about 12% a year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 14.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202614.113786 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a2ff754c-5bd7-4ec8-aa08-bb74fdd45e0d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management acquired Instaleap to accelerate international expansion and launched Storefront Pro-powered Costco same-day delivery in Spain and France. While no direct revenue from international was cited, these strategic moves indicate active progress on international growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Active share repurchase program of $3.5 billion	The company returns capital with a $3.5 billion share buyback program.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $500 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board increased the share repurchase program to $3.5 billion. The company repurchased $1.4B in shares in 2025, including $1.1B in Q4, and continued repurchases of $349M in Q1 and $325M in Q2 2026. Management is delivering on capital return commitments with consistent buybacks. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.96

$2.99 → $2.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.71B

$4.60B → $4.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-25	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-26	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-27	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-28	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-29	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-30	$2.99	$4,598,945,690	27 / 29
2026-07-31	$3.01	$4,617,878,542	21 / 23
2026-08-01	$2.99	$4,600,194,160	27 / 29
2026-08-02	$3.02	$4,619,078,139	21 / 23
2026-08-03	$2.99	$4,600,194,160	27 / 29
2026-08-04	$3.02	$4,619,078,139	21 / 23
2026-08-05	$3.02	$4,619,078,139	21 / 23
2026-08-06	$3.02	$4,619,078,139	21 / 23
2026-08-07	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-08	$2.96	$4,645,194,630	27 / 28
2026-08-09	$2.96	$4,645,194,630	27 / 28
2026-08-10	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-11	$2.95	$4,686,267,350	27 / 29
2026-08-12	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-13	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-14	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-15	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-16	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-17	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-18	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-19	$3.02	$4,619,212,282	21 / 23
2026-08-20	$2.98	$4,709,186,396	21 / 23
2026-08-21	$2.98	$4,709,186,396	21 / 23
2026-08-22	$2.98	$4,709,186,396	21 / 23
2026-08-23	$2.98	$4,709,186,396	21 / 23
2026-08-24	$2.98	$4,709,186,396	21 / 23
2026-08-25	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-26	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-27	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-28	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-29	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-30	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-08-31	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-09-01	$2.98	$4,709,185,727	21 / 23
2026-09-02	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	21 / 23
2026-09-03	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	22 / 23
2026-09-04	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	22 / 23
2026-09-05	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	22 / 23
2026-09-06	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	22 / 23
2026-09-07	$2.97	$4,708,336,203	22 / 23
2026-09-08	$2.97	$4,709,789,845	22 / 23
2026-09-09	$2.97	$4,709,789,845	22 / 23
2026-09-10	$2.97	$4,709,789,845	22 / 23
2026-09-11	$2.97	$4,709,789,131	22 / 23
2026-09-12	$2.97	$4,709,789,131	22 / 23
2026-09-13	$2.97	$4,710,062,827	22 / 23
2026-09-14	$2.97	$4,710,062,827	23 / 23
2026-09-15	$2.97	$4,710,062,827	23 / 23
2026-09-16	$2.96	$4,711,262,827	23 / 23
2026-09-17	$2.96	$4,711,262,827	23 / 23
2026-09-18	$2.96	$4,711,262,827	23 / 23
2026-09-19	$2.96	$4,711,262,827	23 / 23
2026-09-20	$2.96	$4,711,261,337	23 / 23
2026-09-21	$2.96	$4,711,261,337	23 / 23
2026-09-22	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-23	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-24	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-25	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-26	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-27	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-28	$2.97	$4,712,543,229	23 / 23
2026-09-29	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-09-30	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-01	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-02	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-03	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-04	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-05	$2.96	$4,713,386,013	23 / 23
2026-10-06	$2.96	$4,713,966,658	23 / 23
2026-10-07	$2.96	$4,713,966,658	23 / 23
2026-10-08	$2.96	$4,713,966,658	23 / 23
2026-10-09	$2.96	$4,713,966,658	23 / 23
2026-10-10	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-11	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-12	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-13	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-14	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-15	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	23 / 23
2026-10-16	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	24 / 23
2026-10-17	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	24 / 23
2026-10-18	$2.96	$4,713,969,500	24 / 24
2026-10-19	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24
2026-10-20	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24
2026-10-21	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24
2026-10-22	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24
2026-10-23	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24
2026-10-24	$2.96	$4,713,959,197	24 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	12	2
2026-06-01	18	12	1
2026-07-01	18	12	1
2026-08-01	18	14	1
2026-09-01	18	14	0
2026-10-01	18	15	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Aug 7

$54.00 → $56.00+3.7%

$0$30.80$61.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage competitive pricing and legal challengesQualitative condition
Operating income improvement to at least $182 millionOperating income: $143M
Revenue growth of about 12% per yearRevenue growth: 14.11%
Active share repurchase program of $3.5 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Maplebear Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CART is a growth-oriented business with a durable premium to peers, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent earnings misses and elevated risk make execution important.

What's priced into Maplebear Inc.

The valuation model shows a durable premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what fundamentals support. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but valuation has risen recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show continued growth: second-quarter 2026 gross transaction value rose 14% year over year, revenue rose 14%, and advertising revenue rose 16%. Management is delivering on growth and repurchase priorities, while international expansion remains mixed and recent earnings misses are a risk; evidence on longer-term financial trends is limited.

What Maplebear Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth across the marketplace, enterprise, and advertising platforms, alongside progress in international expansion. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business outlook, while strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum.