Carrier Global (CARR)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$55.00+0.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carrier Global’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.30 → 3.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow at or above $2 billion	The company generates free cash flow around $2 billion yearly.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $810M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026810,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near or above 11.1%	A primary condition in Carrier Global's published investment case. The stated target is >= 11.1%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 10% in FY26	Operating margin: 12.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 11.1%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202612.99008 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1227bb57-c1f3-4695-8d75-d3e125c0a73b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue at or above $22 billion	A primary condition in Carrier Global's published investment case. The stated target is >= $22 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $21 billion in FY26	Revenue: $6.351B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20266,351,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1227bb57-c1f3-4695-8d75-d3e125c0a73b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Carrier's Commercial HVAC orders grew 35% in 2026-Q1 and nearly 50% in 2025-Q4, with Commercial HVAC sales up 45% in 2025-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes accelerating growth in Commercial HVAC and aftermarket, and the financials show delivering strong double-digit growth in these segments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Execute share repurchases totaling about $1.5 billion	It maintains a strong share buyback plan of about $1.5 billion.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $1 billion over next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.30

$3.21 → $3.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.59B

$23.41B → $24.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.21	$23,414,088,060	23 / 22
2026-07-25	$3.21	$23,425,042,600	23 / 22
2026-07-26	$3.21	$23,425,042,600	23 / 22
2026-07-27	$3.21	$23,425,042,600	23 / 22
2026-07-28	$3.21	$23,425,042,600	23 / 22
2026-07-29	$3.22	$23,511,515,990	23 / 22
2026-07-30	$3.22	$23,511,515,990	23 / 22
2026-07-31	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-01	$3.30	$24,264,022,510	24 / 23
2026-08-02	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-03	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-04	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-05	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-06	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-07	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-08	$3.30	$24,305,277,360	24 / 23
2026-08-09	$3.30	$24,305,277,360	24 / 23
2026-08-10	$3.30	$24,305,277,360	24 / 23
2026-08-11	$3.31	$24,305,277,360	24 / 23
2026-08-12	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-14	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$3.29	$24,197,868,608	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$3.29	$24,239,149,078	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$3.29	$24,239,149,078	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$3.30	$24,281,246,763	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-01	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-02	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-03	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-04	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-05	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-06	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-07	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-08	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-09	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-10	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-11	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-12	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-14	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-15	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-16	$3.30	$24,319,374,001	14 / 17
2026-09-17	$3.30	$24,308,237,638	14 / 17
2026-09-18	$3.30	$24,308,237,638	14 / 17
2026-09-19	$3.30	$24,308,237,638	14 / 17
2026-09-20	$3.30	$24,301,919,456	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$3.30	$24,301,919,456	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$3.30	$24,334,085,994	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$3.30	$24,350,222,358	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$3.30	$24,350,222,358	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$3.31	$24,364,995,299	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$3.29	$24,413,163,476	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$3.29	$24,413,163,476	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$3.29	$24,413,166,254	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$3.29	$24,413,166,254	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$3.29	$24,413,166,254	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$3.29	$24,428,601,037	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$3.29	$24,422,644,515	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$3.29	$24,435,699,680	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$3.29	$24,440,397,140	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$3.29	$24,440,397,140	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$3.29	$24,442,672,259	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$3.29	$24,442,672,259	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$3.30	$24,490,380,593	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$3.30	$24,496,268,546	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$3.30	$24,585,227,712	14 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	12
2026-06-01	14	12
2026-07-01	14	11
2026-08-01	14	10
2026-09-01	15	11
2026-10-01	14	13

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 14 · prior Sep 30

$74.00 → $61.00-17.6%

BernsteinOct 7 · prior Jul 30

$78.00 → $64.00-17.9%

Wells FargoSep 24

$67.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$42.90$85.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow at or above $2 billionFree cash flow: $810M
Operating margin near or above 11.1%Operating margin: 12.99%
Annual revenue at or above $22 billionRevenue: $6.351B
Execute share repurchases totaling about $1.5 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carrier Global outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CARR represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Commercial HVAC and aftermarket services. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial results.

What's priced into Carrier Global

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above reality. CARR is priced at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth is already anticipated.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently delivered strong financial performance, particularly in the Commercial HVAC segment. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential sector challenges that could impact future results.

What Carrier Global hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for CARR. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could create headwinds.