Carter Bankshares, Inc. (CARE)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.57-0.42%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carter Bankshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	48.64M
EPS	—	0.57
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	328.86M
EPS	—	6.045
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	304.41M
EPS	—	2.494

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $10 million share repurchase program over 12 months	The company maintains a $10 million share repurchase program and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.	Intact	repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share	The company maintains a $10 million share repurchase program and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.	Intact	dividend cut or suspension	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain strong earnings with net income near $85.8 million and EPS near $3.88	Earnings grew strongly, with net income rising from $5.4 million to $85.8 million and EPS from $0.24 to $3.88 recently.	Improving	net income or EPS falls below 90% of target levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net interest income grew from $35.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $40.0 million in 2026-Q2, with net interest margin expanding from 3.07% to 3.38%. Total portfolio loans increased by $6.1 million in 2026-Q2 despite significant loan payoffs. These financial results demonstrate delivering on management's priority to maintain strong earnings performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve interest income by $4.2 million annually via portfolio repositioning	Carter Bankshares has improved interest income by about $4.2 million annually through portfolio repositioning.	Intact	interest income improvement falls below $4 million annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company sold $139.4 million and purchased $88.5 million in securities with higher yields in 2026-Q2, expecting to improve interest income by approximately $4.2 million annually. This strategic repositioning aligns with management's stated goal to enhance asset yields and balance sheet positioning, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	3	2
2026-07-01	2	3
2026-08-01	1	3
2026-09-01	1	3
2026-10-01	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $10 million share repurchase program over 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain strong earnings with net income near $85.8 million and EPS near $3.88Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve interest income by $4.2 million annually via portfolio repositioningDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carter Bankshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CARE is a financial-sector earnings story, with recent performance supported by improving interest income and margin. Its multi-year view is intact, though management execution is volatile and recent signals have turned mixed.

What's priced into Carter Bankshares, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes CARE as cheap versus peers, with expectations broadly aligned with fundamentals. The priced-in assessment is justified, and the evidence shows low fragility, so expectations do not appear unusually stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, net interest income and net interest margin improved in 2026-Q2, and loans grew despite significant payoffs. Management’s securities repositioning is mixed: it expects higher annual interest income, but recent company momentum and the composite signal weakened after fresh earnings. The next results carry risk given erratic recent earnings surprises and a 45% estimated miss probability.

What Carter Bankshares, Inc. hinges on

The near-term downside case strengthens if CARE cuts guidance or if the Fed begins cutting rates, which the evidence says can weigh on financial stocks. The favorable case depends partly on strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers supporting sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, execution on asset yields and sustained earnings performance remain key.