Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (CAPR)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.93-3.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Capricor Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	51.85M
EPS	—	-0.501
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	92.15M
EPS	—	-1.513
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	83.74M
EPS	—	-1.463

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash sufficiency through Q4 2027	The company targets cash sufficiency through Q4 2027 to fund operations.	Intact	Cash falls below levels needed to cover expenses through Q4 2027	Cash and cash equivalents: $20.935M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash and equivalents sufficient to cover expenses through Q4 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable20,935,187 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Management consistently affirms that cash and equivalents are sufficient to cover expenses through Q4 2027. Cash reserves declined from $318.1M at 2025-Q4 to $237.9M at 2026-Q2, reflecting ongoing operating losses. The trajectory shows management maintaining cash sufficiency despite net losses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Obtain FDA approval for Deramiocel	Capricor aims for FDA approval of Deramiocel, a key cell therapy for DMD cardiomyopathy.	Improving	FDA approval not granted by end of 2027	FDA approval pending vs target by end-2027 Positive HOPE-3 data and FDA updates reinforce approval prospects; no trip condition triggered. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Resolve litigation with Nippon Shinyaku	Legal action against Nippon Shinyaku may improve pricing terms.	Intact	Unfavorable litigation outcome or prolonged unresolved dispute	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2). Management filed suit against NS Pharma to rescind the U.S. distribution agreement due to a flawed pricing structure impeding patient access. The preliminary injunction motion was withdrawn in 2026-Q2, with arbitration expected in fall 2026. The trajectory shows ongoing legal action with no resolution yet. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.46

$-0.69 → $-1.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.08B

$0.12B → $0.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.69	$117,450,889	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.69	$117,450,889	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.69	$117,450,889	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.64	$122,336,800	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$-0.64	$122,336,800	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$-0.68	$120,242,600	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$-0.68	$120,242,600	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$-0.53	$125,102,000	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.73	$115,121,444	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$-1.26	$48,377,000	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$-1.26	$48,377,000	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$-1.25	$99,571,000	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$-1.26	$48,377,000	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$-1.26	$48,377,000	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$-1.26	$48,377,000	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-11	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$-1.25	$82,037,667	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$-1.49	$76,326,556	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$-1.49	$76,326,556	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$-1.66	$67,119,250	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$-1.66	$67,119,250	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$-1.66	$67,119,250	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$-1.66	$67,119,250	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$-1.66	$67,137,500	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$-1.66	$67,137,500	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$-1.66	$67,137,500	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$-1.60	$74,199,000	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$-1.60	$74,199,000	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$-1.60	$74,199,000	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$-1.60	$74,199,000	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$-1.49	$83,762,500	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$-1.46	$83,744,250	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	0
2026-06-01	10	0
2026-07-01	10	10
2026-08-01	2	10
2026-09-01	4	7
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash sufficiency through Q4 2027Cash and cash equivalents: $20.935M
Resolve litigation with Nippon ShinyakuQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-89.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, development-stage biotechnology company, not an established compounder. Its thesis is on watch: recent signals have improved, but financial performance remains weak and the main product has not received approval.

What's priced into Capricor Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes CAPR as cheap versus peers, with medium confidence, but the company is loss-making, so conventional earnings valuation is limited. No pricing fragility gates fired, though that does not remove the gap between market expectations and the uncertain FDA decision and launch path.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the FDA’s extended review and the negative advisory committee vote leave approval uncertain, while the company continues launch preparations and reports cash sufficiency through Q4 2027. Cash fell from $278.6 million in Q1 2026 to $237.9 million in Q2 amid operating losses, and the next results carry elevated miss risk. The broader Healthcare backdrop has improved, but this does not resolve CAPR’s company-specific risks.

What Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The key swing factor is whether the FDA approves Deramiocel after reviewing additional data by the extended November 22, 2026 action date. Commercial readiness, ongoing cash use, and management’s ability to maintain its stated cash runway also matter over the multi-year view. Weaker employment data could weigh on sector sentiment, while strong results and guidance from Healthcare bellwethers could support it.