Calix (CALX)

NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.47-1.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Calix’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	314.18M
EPS	—	0.446
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	1.721
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.38B
EPS	—	2.304

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stock repurchase program expanded to $525M	The company expanded its stock buyback program to $525M, showing capital return focus.	Intact	No buyback activity or program reduced below $400M in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and October 2026 press releases. The board increased the stock repurchase authorization by $100 million to a total of $525 million, reflecting management's ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation. This priority is delivering as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 55% in FY26	A supporting condition in Calix's published investment case. The stated target is >= 54.25%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 50% in FY26	Gross margin: 54.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 54.25%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 21, 202654.588534 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82f9832b-591c-4c3e-9259-0adcccd7566e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves beyond $12.7M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Calix's published investment case. The stated target is > $12.7M.	Broken	Operating income falls below $10M in next 4 quarters	Operating income: $21.849M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $12.7M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 202621,849,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82f9832b-591c-4c3e-9259-0adcccd7566e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved significantly from a loss of $6.1M in 2025-Q1 to a positive $21.8M in 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's progress on improving profitability. The trajectory is delivering consistent operational improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $1.18B in FY26	A primary condition in Calix's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.18B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.0B in FY26	Revenue: $293.329M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.18B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 2026293,329,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82f9832b-591c-4c3e-9259-0adcccd7566e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $220.2M in 2025-Q1 to $293.3M in 2026-Q2, with guidance for Q3 2026 between $301M and $307M. The trajectory shows consistent growth, delivering on management's stated revenue expansion priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.30 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.38B

$1.37B → $1.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.30	$1,373,672,800	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-09	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.30	$1,377,794,000	7 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,377,791,433	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,377,794,000	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	5	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stock repurchase program expanded to $525MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 55% in FY26Gross margin: 54.59%
Operating income improves beyond $12.7M in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to about $1.18B in FY26Revenue: $293.329M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Calix outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and improving-profitability story, not yet a profitable business: earnings quality is still rated loss-making. Management is stable and its revenue and operating-income priorities are on track, so the long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Calix

The evidence labels CALX expensive overall, despite a valuation signal that says cheap versus peers. Its expectations gap is negative, which points to some room between expectations and the current business outlook, while the priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and fragility low. Together, these signals are mixed, and the business remains exposed to execution risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent performance is strong: revenue rose from $220.2 million in 2025 Q1 to $293.3 million in 2026 Q2, with Q3 guidance of $301 million to $307 million. Operating income improved from a $6.1 million loss to $21.8 million of income over that period, and recent earnings beats support the trend. Near term, a guidance cut is a key risk; recent history includes a deep miss and earnings surprises have been trending down.

What Calix hinges on

The main company-specific test is whether CALX sustains revenue growth and operating improvement without cutting guidance. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued execution would support it. Over the near term, interest-rate cuts and stronger results or guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, but those external factors do not replace company execution.