Boyd Gaming (BYD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
$75.41-1.45%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain consistent revenue growth: Q1 FY26 YoY revenue growth 0.0% vs 2% target.
Boyd Gaming grows revenue steadily, from $991.6M in 2025-Q1 to $997.4M in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations is strong, reaching $275.3M in 2025-Q4. The stock trades cheap with a P/E of 11.98 versus peers at 17.27. Analysts expect modest revenue growth of about 2% next year.
Operating income declined sharply from $261.3M in 2024-Q4 to $166.4M in 2025-Q4. Cash from operations dropped from $256.4M in 2025-Q1 to $134.3M in 2026-Q1. Recent earnings missed expectations and guidance was cut, signaling potential profit pressure.
The price is about 10% above our fair value near $81, reflecting roughly 2% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 11% below the Street median, indicating some valuation risk versus consensus.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $134M in FY26
Grow cash generated from operating activities to support capital investments and shareholder returns.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and a commitment to operational improvements.
The market currently prices BYD as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate its potential for growth. The low fragility tier suggests that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management is focused on maintaining revenue growth, which has shown stable to modest increases. Operating income has mixed results, with a decline year-over-year but improvement quarter-over-quarter, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance efficiency.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Additionally, the performance of key sector peers could influence BYD's momentum and overall market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook for BYD. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this view.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $166M in FY26
Focus on improving operating income through operational efficiencies and capital investments.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $200.7 million in 2026-Q2, down from $242.4 million in 2025-Q2 but up from $164.0 million in 2026-Q1. Management highlighted operational efficiencies and capital investments as drivers. The trajectory shows mixed results with a decline year-over-year but improvement quarter-over-quarter, indicating partial progress.
“Second-quarter results reflect property operating margins of 40%, a level consistently delivered over several years.”
“First-quarter results reflect benefits of operating efficiencies and ongoing capital investments.”
“Fourth-quarter results driven by operational discipline and capital investments, maintaining strong property-level margins.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
Continue to grow revenues across core segments including Midwest & South, Online, and Managed business.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $1.03 billion in 2026-Q2, essentially flat compared to $1.03 billion in 2025-Q2, and up from $997.4 million in 2026-Q1. Management emphasized growth in Midwest & South, Online, and Managed segments. The trajectory shows stable to modest growth, consistent with management's stated focus on maintaining revenue growth.
“Second-quarter results demonstrated benefits of diversified business model with revenue growth in Midwest & South, Online, and Managed business.”
“First-quarter results reflect benefits of diversified business with year-over-year revenue growth in Midwest & South segment.”
“Fourth-quarter results driven by strength in play from core customers and operational discipline, achieving record revenues.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, BYD's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.