Boyd Gaming (BYD)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$71.69-0.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Boyd Gaming’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.75 → 7.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.05B
EPS	—	1.926
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.08B
EPS	—	7.182
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.15B
EPS	—	7.766

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash from operations	Cash from operations is strong, reaching $275.3M in 2025-Q4.	Under Pressure	Cash from operations falls below $134M in FY26	Cash from operations: $-23.533M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $275M cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-23,533,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or improve operating income	A primary condition in Boyd Gaming's published investment case. The stated target is >= $166M operating income.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $166M in FY26	Operating income: $200.698M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $166M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026200,698,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c157a55-73bf-4c59-8f69-d442cdee7f8d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain consistent revenue growth	A primary condition in Boyd Gaming's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.037524 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c157a55-73bf-4c59-8f69-d442cdee7f8d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.77

$7.82 → $7.77 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.15B

$4.24B → $4.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.82	$4,236,559,760	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$7.74	$4,207,670,700	16 / 16
2026-07-26	$7.74	$4,207,670,700	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$7.73	$4,197,659,820	16 / 16
2026-07-28	$7.73	$4,197,659,820	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$7.73	$4,197,659,820	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$7.73	$4,197,659,820	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-01	$7.73	$4,197,659,820	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-06	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-07	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$7.76	$4,193,434,310	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-11	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-14	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$7.74	$4,191,676,391	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$7.74	$4,190,989,921	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$7.74	$4,190,810,588	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-04	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-05	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$7.75	$4,191,376,667	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-26	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-27	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-28	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-29	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-09-30	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-10-01	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-10-02	$7.75	$4,191,391,743	10 / 13
2026-10-03	$7.75	$4,191,561,114	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$7.75	$4,191,561,114	10 / 13
2026-10-05	$7.75	$4,191,561,114	10 / 13
2026-10-06	$7.75	$4,191,561,114	10 / 13
2026-10-07	$7.76	$4,191,822,225	10 / 13
2026-10-08	$7.73	$4,186,469,781	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$7.73	$4,186,469,781	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$7.73	$4,186,469,781	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$7.85	$4,186,469,781	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$7.85	$4,186,469,781	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$7.78	$4,186,747,873	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$7.78	$4,182,154,873	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$7.79	$4,181,039,332	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$7.75	$4,175,088,737	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$7.75	$4,175,088,737	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$7.74	$4,166,554,056	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$7.77	$4,153,481,704	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	11
2026-06-01	7	12
2026-07-01	7	12
2026-08-01	6	12
2026-09-01	6	13
2026-10-01	9	13

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

3 upgrades0 downgrades12 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 15 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 23 · prior Jul 24

$92.00 → $80.00-13.0%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 23 · prior Oct 7

$102.00 → $103.00+1.0%

CBREOct 23

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 23 · prior Oct 9

$85.00 → $83.00-2.4%

Wells FargoOct 19

$86.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 19 · prior Jul 24

$87.00 → $83.00-4.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 19 · prior Jul 27

$89.00 → $83.00-6.7%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jun 26

$91.00 → $80.00-12.1%

Deutsche BankOct 6

$99.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$56.65$113.30

1 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operationsPublished status: Under Pressure
Stabilize or improve operating incomePublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain consistent revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Boyd Gaming outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a business with strong recent financial performance, but the evidence does not establish a durable compounder or a clear turnaround. Its multi-year view remains intact, though confidence is medium and management execution is mixed.

What's priced into Boyd Gaming

The valuation evidence describes BYD as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in assessment and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so expectations appear somewhat demanding despite the relative discount; the evidence does not specify what assumptions the market already makes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent results were strong, and earnings beats were reported in October and July. Near term, the miss-risk estimate is low, but the evidence notes misses in recent quarters and warns that guidance cuts could prompt lower estimates. Capital returns continue, while reported revenue eased from the second quarter to the third and investment returns remain unquantified.

What Boyd Gaming hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether BYD can sustain strong results and avoid a guidance cut at its next call. Property investment returns and operating efficiency also matter, since the evidence shows limited progress in the latest operating-income comparison. Sector bellwether results could shape the broader consumer-discretionary backdrop, though that signal is indirect.