BorgWarner (BWA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$54.96-0.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BorgWarner’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.94 → 5.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	3.52B
EPS	—	1.308
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.19B
EPS	$5.05–$5.3non-GAAP $4.72–$4.94	5.211
Capital expenditure	-$700M–-$600M	—
Free cash flow	$900M–$1.1B	—
Operating cash flow	$1.6B–$1.7B	—
Operating income	$1.34B–$1.4B $1.5B–$1.57Bnon-GAAP	—
Operating margin	10.7%–10.9%non-GAAP 9.6%–9.8%GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	14.81B
EPS	—	5.906

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $1B	Cash flow is expected to improve to about $1B in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $850M in FY26	Free cash flow: $490M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026490,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net cash from operating activities rose significantly from $152 million in 2026-Q1 to $586 million in 2026-Q2. Management's 2026 free cash flow guidance is $900 million to $1.1 billion. The trajectory shows delivering improved cash flow generation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain net income growth	BorgWarner is improving net income, rising from a loss to $242M in Q1 2026.	Intact	Net income turns negative again in next 4 quarters	Net income: $277M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive net income sustained. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026277,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb262af0-b048-42a1-8e96-84f7e7318e61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 9.9%	A primary condition in BorgWarner's published investment case. The stated target is 9.9%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 8.5% in FY26	Operating margin: 10.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 9.9%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202610.142544 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb262af0-b048-42a1-8e96-84f7e7318e61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit increased from $677 million in 2026-Q1 to $721 million in 2026-Q2. Management's 2026 guidance targets a gross margin range of 9.7% to 9.9%. The trajectory shows delivering improvement in gross profit and margin. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue near $14.15B	A primary condition in BorgWarner's published investment case. The stated target is ~$14.15B.	Under Pressure	Annual revenue falls below $13.7B in FY26	Revenue: $3.648B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$14.15B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263,648,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bb262af0-b048-42a1-8e96-84f7e7318e61. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.91

$5.82 → $5.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.81B

$14.88B → $14.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$5.82	$14,875,869,180	14 / 13
2026-08-02	$5.81	$14,867,484,560	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$5.81	$14,867,484,560	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$5.81	$14,867,484,560	13 / 13
2026-08-05	$5.81	$14,867,484,560	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$5.81	$14,867,484,560	13 / 13
2026-08-07	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$5.75	$14,834,702,970	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 10
2026-08-11	$5.78	$14,860,004,590	15 / 14
2026-08-12	$5.94	$14,867,022,790	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.86	$14,815,342,656	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$5.94	$14,859,608,782	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-10	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$5.94	$14,854,762,628	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.94	$14,837,484,514	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$5.94	$14,836,223,648	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$5.94	$14,836,223,648	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$5.94	$14,836,223,648	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$5.94	$14,836,223,648	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$5.93	$14,838,871,263	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$5.92	$14,819,455,556	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$5.92	$14,809,563,889	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.92	$14,809,563,889	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.92	$14,813,212,821	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.92	$14,813,212,821	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$5.92	$14,813,212,821	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$5.89	$14,813,212,821	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$5.89	$14,813,212,821	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$5.89	$14,813,212,821	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$5.89	$14,813,212,821	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$5.91	$14,817,631,574	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$5.91	$14,817,631,574	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$5.91	$14,817,631,574	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$5.91	$14,807,916,189	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$5.91	$14,807,916,189	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$5.91	$14,807,916,189	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$5.91	$14,807,916,189	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	10	5	2
2026-07-01	10	4	1
2026-08-01	11	5	1
2026-09-01	11	5	0
2026-10-01	12	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jun 10

$95.00 → $91.00-4.2%

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Aug 6

$71.00 → $95.00+33.8%

$0$52.25$104.50

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $1BPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain net income growthNet income: $277M
Operating margin near 9.9%Published status: Under Pressure
Annual revenue near $14.15BPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BorgWarner outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an established auto-supplier business with a multi-year growth case tied to new business awards and better profitability. The thesis is on watch: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, and company quality declined, though the evidence does not show a fresh break.

What's priced into BorgWarner

BWA is cheap versus peers, and the valuation evidence labels expectations as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that measure is medium, so the evidence does not support a strong claim that expectations are unusually low or high.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 guidance maintains expectations for margin and earnings-per-share growth, and the latest reported quarter showed both measures improving. New business awards support the longer-term growth case, including a turbine generator system expected to enter production in 2027; however, recent performance remains below the industry cohort, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.

What BorgWarner hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to turn new awards into profitable growth and sustaining progress on margins and earnings. Near-term signals include whether BWA cuts guidance and whether sector bellwethers keep beating and guiding higher, or instead start missing and guiding lower.