Burlington Stores (BURL)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$247.63-1.98%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Burlington Stores’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.69 → 13.55 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	1.734
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	12.74B
EPS	—	11.898
Capital expenditure (net of landlord allowances)	About $875M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	13.9B
EPS	—	13.549

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS near $11.62 in fiscal 2027	The company raised EPS guidance to $11.62 for fiscal 2027.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $11.45 for fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Enhance net income to exceed $114M	Profit rises with operating income up $9.8M and net income up $13.9M from last year.	Intact	Net income falls below $100M next year	Net income: $184.304M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $114M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026184,304,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c5e02290-0b2a-410d-8971-97f5cfd53437. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $1.47 in 2025-Q2 to $2.88 in 2026-Q3, and net income rose from $94M to $184M over the same period. Management highlighted 15 consecutive quarters of double-digit EPS growth and margin expansion. The trajectory is delivering with strong earnings growth and margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating income by at least $9M	Profit rises with operating income up $9.8M and net income up $13.9M from last year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $130M next year	Operating income: $251.48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $142M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026251,480,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 14% YoY	A primary condition in Burlington Stores's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 10.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202610.986477 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c5e02290-0b2a-410d-8971-97f5cfd53437. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total sales grew from 2.7B in 2025-Q2 to 3.0B in 2026-Q3, an 11% increase year-over-year, with comparable store sales showing a 7% two-year stack. Management consistently emphasized comp store sales growth of 3% to 4% for Fiscal 2026. The trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and comp sales expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.55

$13.73 → $13.55 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$13.90B

$13.97B → $13.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.73	$13,969,298,657	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$13.73	$13,969,298,657	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$13.73	$13,969,298,657	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$13.73	$13,969,298,657	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-07	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-11	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$13.84	$13,993,498,660	17 / 15
2026-08-14	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$13.73	$13,969,240,981	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$13.99	$14,070,494,455	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$13.99	$14,070,494,455	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$13.99	$14,070,494,455	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$13.99	$14,070,494,455	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$13.99	$14,070,494,455	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$13.99	$14,083,170,599	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$13.99	$14,083,170,599	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$13.99	$14,083,170,599	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$13.99	$14,083,170,599	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$13.71	$13,979,723,720	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$13.71	$13,979,723,720	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$13.71	$13,979,723,720	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$13.69	$13,982,334,831	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$13.69	$13,982,313,536	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-07	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-08	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-16	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-17	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-18	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-19	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-20	$13.54	$13,907,411,798	11 / 12
2026-10-21	$13.54	$13,900,465,837	10 / 12
2026-10-22	$13.54	$13,900,465,837	10 / 12
2026-10-23	$13.55	$13,900,465,837	11 / 12
2026-10-24	$13.55	$13,900,465,837	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	5
2026-06-01	13	5
2026-07-01	13	5
2026-08-01	14	6
2026-09-01	13	6
2026-10-01	14	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wolfe ResearchOct 21

$356.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$195.80$391.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS near $11.62 in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Enhance net income to exceed $114MNet income: $184.304M
Improve operating income by at least $9MOperating income: $251.48M
Maintain revenue growth near 14% YoYRevenue growth: 10.99%

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Burlington Stores outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BURL is a growth-oriented retailer with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Burlington Stores

The valuation is expensive versus peers, reflecting expectations for durable growth. The evidence labels the premium as justified, but also shows a negative expectations gap, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the business delivers; confidence in that estimate is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: recent sales, earnings, and margins improved, and management’s growth priorities remain on track. The store-opening plan is consistent but not yet confirmed by reported store-count changes. Near-term earnings risk is rated low, though past misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain concerns.

What Burlington Stores hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued sales and earnings growth, margin improvement, and delivery on planned store expansion. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while results and guidance from TJX, ROST, and LULU could signal whether the sector backdrop is strengthening or weakening.