Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$239.18-6.36%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve EPS near $11.62 in fiscal 2027: FY27 EPS guidance mid $11.63 vs target $11.45-$11.80.
Burlington grows revenue about 14% yearly, reaching $2.86B in Q1 2026. Profit rises with operating income up $9.8M and net income up $13.9M from last year. The company raised EPS guidance to $11.62 for fiscal 2027. Cost controls and ocean freight contracts help improve profits.
The stock trades expensive at a PE of 31 versus peers at 13.6. Free cash flow yield is negative. Revenue growth could slow below the 23% analysts expect. Rising costs or weaker demand may hurt profits and margins.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $239, reflecting strong revenue growth of 23% expected by analysts. Our fair value is 33% below the Street median, so the market is pricing in a premium growth outlook that we view as justified but aggressive.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $11.45 for fiscal 2027
Breaks if: Net income falls below $100M next year
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $130M next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
BURL represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though it faces some near-term risks.
The market currently prices BURL at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting justified expectations for continued growth. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some investors may be cautious about future performance.
BURL's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong revenue and earnings growth, as management is focused on increasing sales and expanding the store footprint. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential earnings misses, as recent surprises have been trending down.
The thesis hinges on BURL's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage risks related to inflation and sector performance. Key factors include guidance from management in upcoming calls and performance from sector peers like TJX and ROST.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 17.3 points (from 47.8 to 30.5).
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings beat is a positive sign. However, the company faces a sharp drop in stock price. This drop suggests the market is repricing the reasons to own it. Management noted weaker consumer demand and high gas prices affecting sales. The competitive environment in New Jersey is less attractive due to high taxes.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
Continue to grow total sales and comparable store sales with a focus on comp store sales growth of 3% to 4% in Fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total sales grew from 2.7B in 2025-Q2 to 3.0B in 2026-Q3, an 11% increase year-over-year, with comparable store sales showing a 7% two-year stack. Management consistently emphasized comp store sales growth of 3% to 4% for Fiscal 2026. The trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and comp sales expansion.
“Total sales grew 11% on top of a strong 10% increase last year. Comp store sales increased 2% on top of 5% last year.”
“Total sales increased 14%, on top of 6% last year. Comparable store sales increased 6%.”
“Total sales increased 14%, while comparable store sales increased 6%, well ahead of our guidance.”
“Total sales increased 11% compared to the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2024. Comparable store sales increased 4%.”
Overall, BURL's fundamentals and management priorities suggest a solid long-term outlook, but investors should watch for potential risks. Not investment advice.