Barfresh Food Group Inc (BRFH)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.26+3.28%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $3.2M to $3.8M: FY26 Adj EBITDA guidance -1.0M to 2.0M vs 3.2M target.
Barfresh aims for $28 to $32 million revenue in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA target is $3.2 to $3.8 million. Q2 2026 revenue guidance is $5.2 to $5.6 million. Recent revenue growth shows progress toward these goals.
The company is still losing money and has high risk. Past earnings missed targets. Debt from convertible notes adds financial pressure.
The market expects about 62% revenue growth. Our fair value matches this growth. We see risk in profitability and execution.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $3.2 million in FY26
Breaks if: Q2 revenue falls below $5.2 million
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $28 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. The company is currently loss-making with weak recent financial performance, but there are signs of potential recovery if management can execute on their priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low fragility tier. However, there is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the challenges ahead.
Management is focused on completing a new manufacturing facility and achieving revenue growth, but recent results have shown mixed progress. There is a risk of missing earnings expectations given the company's recent performance and elevated risk profile.
The long-term thesis hinges on whether BRFH can successfully raise guidance in the next quarter and improve its operational efficiency. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers could influence the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company maintained its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $23M to $26M, which supports the read. However, there are concerns that the recent revenue jump may not sustain the higher fiscal 2026 guidance of $28M to $32M. This uncertainty adds pressure to the overall outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to target fiscal year 2026 revenue in the range of $28 million to $32 million, reflecting significant growth from prior years.
In the next 1 to 3 years, BRFH's success will depend on management's execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.