Box, Inc. (BOX)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$43.18+0.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Box, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.74 → 1.74 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	About $329M	329.16M
EPS	About $0.39non-GAAP About $0.12GAAP	0.391
Operating margin	About 10%GAAP About 28%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	About $1.29B	1.29B
EPS	About $1.54non-GAAP About $0.38GAAP	1.54
Operating margin	About 28%non-GAAP About 9.5%GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	1.739

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations grows above $140 million	Cash from operations is rising, supporting investments.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $127 million next year	Cash from operations: $70.845M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $140 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 202670,845,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net cash from operations was $110.4 million in 2025-Q4 but declined to $70.8 million in 2026-Q3, while non-GAAP free cash flow increased by 67% in 2026-Q3. Management emphasizes cash flow growth, but recent quarter shows mixed cash from operations, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS reaches about $1.56	Profit per share is expected near $1.56, showing steady profit growth.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.55 per share in FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.56 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 85ae457b-0785-41fd-b5d5-2f8c5dbfd719. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billion	Box grows revenue about 9% a year, hitting $1.28 billion next fiscal year.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.175 billion in FY27	Revenue: $321.147M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.28 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 2026321,147,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 85ae457b-0785-41fd-b5d5-2f8c5dbfd719. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $279.5 million in 2025-Q4 to $321.1 million in 2026-Q3, a 9% increase year-over-year, or 11% on a constant currency basis. Management consistently attributes growth to Enterprise Advanced adoption and AI platform expansion, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.74

$1.80 → $1.74 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.40B

$1.38B → $1.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.80	$1,386,468,710	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.80	$1,386,468,710	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.80	$1,384,357,582	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.79	$1,388,684,405	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.79	$1,388,684,405	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.79	$1,388,684,405	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.74	$1,400,608,782	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.74	$1,400,608,782	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.74	$1,400,608,782	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.74	$1,401,883,448	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.74	$1,403,317,019	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	4	5	1
2026-07-01	4	5	2
2026-08-01	4	5	2
2026-09-01	4	5	2
2026-10-01	4	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations grows above $140 millionCash from operations: $70.845M
EPS reaches about $1.56Diluted EPS: $0.09 per share
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billionRevenue: $321.147M

Next proof point

Dec 1, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Box, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BOX is a growth-and-margin improvement story, with recent financial performance still strong relative to its industry. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk is elevated after a recent earnings miss and a sharp decline in the company momentum measure.

What's priced into Box, Inc.

BOX is expensive versus peers, while the expectations gap is nearly aligned and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified. The evidence suggests expectations are broadly in line with the current setup, with low priced-in fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and GAAP operating margin have improved, and management remains on track with its growth and margin priorities. Cash from operations was lower in the latest cited quarter, despite higher non-GAAP free cash flow, and the recent earnings miss and run of misses add execution risk.

What Box, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued Enterprise Advanced adoption, AI platform expansion, and margin gains, while cash generation needs to become more consistent. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or continued strength from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.