BIONTECH SE (BNTX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-16

$87.71-2.76%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BIONTECH SE’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain operating margins through effective cost management	A supporting condition in BIONTECH SE's published investment case. The stated target is >=20% operating margin by FY27.	Intact	operating margin falls below 20% by FY27	Operating margin: -897.82% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% operating margin by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-897.82197 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advancement of oncology vaccine candidates in clinical trials	BioNTech has strong potential in oncology with several promising vaccine candidates.	Improving	fewer than 2 candidates reach Phase 3 trials by FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth from new product launches	A primary condition in BIONTECH SE's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth by FY27.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 15% YoY by FY27	Revenue growth: -59.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-59.509202 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-5.64

$-4.33 → $-5.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.78B

$2.23B → $1.78B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-4.33	$2,230,748,290	7 / 17
2026-07-25	$-4.72	$2,216,160,072	8 / 12
2026-07-26	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-07-27	$-4.70	$2,209,284,446	8 / 12
2026-07-28	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-07-29	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-07-30	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-07-31	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-01	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-02	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-03	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-04	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-05	$-4.40	$2,139,864,780	7 / 17
2026-08-06	$-4.33	$2,230,776,480	7 / 17
2026-08-07	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	8 / 12
2026-08-08	$-4.88	$1,879,941,370	9 / 17
2026-08-09	$-4.88	$1,879,941,370	9 / 17
2026-08-10	$-4.88	$1,879,941,370	9 / 17
2026-08-11	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	8 / 12
2026-08-12	$-4.86	$1,864,227,900	9 / 17
2026-08-13	$-4.86	$1,864,227,900	9 / 17
2026-08-14	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	8 / 12
2026-08-15	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$-5.73	$1,906,614,528	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$-5.68	$1,891,987,143	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$-5.68	$1,892,181,580	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$-5.68	$1,892,181,580	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$-5.68	$1,892,181,580	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$-5.68	$1,892,181,580	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$-5.68	$1,892,197,783	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$-5.66	$1,860,318,227	9 / 12
2026-08-27	$-5.66	$1,860,318,227	9 / 12
2026-08-28	$-5.66	$1,860,318,227	9 / 12
2026-08-29	$-5.65	$1,858,659,323	9 / 12
2026-08-30	$-5.65	$1,858,671,463	9 / 12
2026-08-31	$-5.65	$1,858,671,463	9 / 12
2026-09-01	$-5.64	$1,853,279,987	9 / 12
2026-09-02	$-5.62	$1,849,036,991	9 / 12
2026-09-03	$-5.62	$1,848,382,996	9 / 12
2026-09-04	$-5.64	$1,854,300,858	9 / 12
2026-09-05	$-5.64	$1,854,300,858	9 / 12
2026-09-06	$-5.64	$1,854,300,858	9 / 12
2026-09-07	$-5.64	$1,854,300,858	9 / 12
2026-09-08	$-5.63	$1,852,434,578	9 / 12
2026-09-09	$-5.74	$1,811,552,635	8 / 12
2026-09-10	$-5.74	$1,811,926,726	9 / 12
2026-09-11	$-5.75	$1,813,703,660	9 / 12
2026-09-12	$-5.73	$1,809,448,372	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$-5.73	$1,809,448,372	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$-5.73	$1,809,448,372	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$-5.73	$1,807,484,392	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$-5.70	$1,800,015,882	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$-5.71	$1,797,014,012	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$-5.71	$1,797,014,012	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$-5.71	$1,797,014,012	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$-5.68	$1,787,342,766	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$-5.65	$1,779,807,483	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$-5.66	$1,781,780,271	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$-5.66	$1,782,470,975	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$-5.66	$1,782,470,975	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$-5.64	$1,774,422,794	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$-5.64	$1,774,868,557	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$-5.64	$1,774,868,557	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$-5.65	$1,780,420,340	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$-5.67	$1,784,592,185	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$-5.67	$1,784,592,185	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$-5.66	$1,782,612,014	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$-5.67	$1,784,716,018	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$-5.62	$1,769,687,889	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$-5.62	$1,771,082,364	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$-5.63	$1,773,417,608	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$-5.64	$1,775,326,952	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$-5.62	$1,770,214,328	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$-5.64	$1,775,955,827	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$-5.54	$1,766,207,276	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$-5.54	$1,766,207,276	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$-5.52	$1,770,108,512	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$-5.53	$1,772,819,000	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$-5.56	$1,776,236,976	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$-5.55	$1,773,584,323	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$-5.58	$1,781,700,286	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$-5.64	$1,783,723,687	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	6	1
2026-06-01	15	5	0
2026-07-01	15	5	1
2026-08-01	15	5	1
2026-09-01	15	5	1
2026-10-01	14	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Canaccord GenuityOct 14 · prior Aug 31

$136.00 → $132.00-2.9%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$119.00 → $114.00-4.2%

$0$74.80$149.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain operating margins through effective cost managementOperating margin: -897.82%
Advancement of oncology vaccine candidates in clinical trialsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue growth from new product launchesRevenue growth: -59.51%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BIONTECH SE outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, making it challenging to assess the long-term potential.

What's priced into BIONTECH SE

The market currently assumes low fragility in BNTX, as no fragility gates have been triggered. Valuation confidence is high, indicating that expectations are relatively stable despite the uncertainty.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term, as there is a 56% probability of an earnings miss. The company has a history of consecutive earnings misses, which adds to the elevated risk.

What BIONTECH SE hinges on

The future performance of BNTX will depend on broader sector trends, particularly the performance of key competitors like VRTX, MRNA, and REGN. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable tailwind for BNTX.