BankUnited, Inc. (BKU)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$43.57-0.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BankUnited, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.46 → 4.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	296.17M
EPS	—	1.073
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	288.75M
EPS	—	0.996
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.14B
EPS	—	3.833
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	4.34

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at least $4.09 in FY26	A primary condition in BankUnited, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.09.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.8 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $61.9 million in 2026-Q1	Net income rose from $58.5M to $61.9M in the same period.	Intact	Net income falls below $58 million in 2026-Q1	Net income: $70.663M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $61.9 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202670,663,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f1427910-953e-4801-9da6-d0bcb9f3bfed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $1.17 billion in FY26	A primary condition in BankUnited, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.17 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $6.31M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.17 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266,310,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f1427910-953e-4801-9da6-d0bcb9f3bfed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.34

$4.56 → $4.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.20B

$1.24B → $1.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.56	$1,235,174,050	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$4.52	$1,219,001,390	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$4.52	$1,219,001,390	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.52	$1,219,001,390	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$4.52	$1,219,001,390	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.49	$1,215,023,610	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.49	$1,215,023,610	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.49	$1,215,023,610	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.48	$1,216,742,108	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.49	$1,215,023,610	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-07	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$4.48	$1,215,831,250	9 / 10
2026-08-11	$4.47	$1,215,791,250	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$4.47	$1,215,791,250	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.47	$1,215,791,250	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.47	$1,215,437,018	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$4.46	$1,215,759,618	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$4.46	$1,215,724,618	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$4.46	$1,215,724,618	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$4.46	$1,215,724,618	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$4.46	$1,215,724,618	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$4.46	$1,215,724,618	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$4.46	$1,215,719,708	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.46	$1,215,709,708	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.46	$1,215,932,275	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.46	$1,215,932,275	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.46	$1,215,932,275	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.46	$1,215,972,275	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.45	$1,212,222,275	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.45	$1,212,222,275	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.44	$1,212,222,275	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.44	$1,212,222,275	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.44	$1,212,222,275	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.43	$1,210,951,575	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.43	$1,210,640,635	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.43	$1,210,640,635	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.41	$1,210,620,635	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.41	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.41	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.41	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.41	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.41	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$4.40	$1,210,530,635	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$4.34	$1,201,677,215	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.34	$1,198,892,108	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.34	$1,198,892,108	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	5	1
2026-06-01	5	5	2
2026-07-01	5	4	2
2026-08-01	5	4	2
2026-09-01	5	5	2
2026-10-01	4	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 22 · prior Oct 9

$49.00 → $48.00-2.0%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14

$52.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 6

$49.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 2

$47.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Aug 10

$54.00 → $47.00-13.0%

$0$29.70$59.40

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at least $4.09 in FY26Published status: Broken
Net income grows to at least $61.9 million in 2026-Q1Net income: $70.663M
Revenue grows to at least $1.17 billion in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BankUnited, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BKU is a bank with a multi-year thesis tied to shifting its lending mix, growing core deposits, and maintaining credit quality. The thesis is intact this month, although two recent earnings misses and uneven execution leave the evidence mixed.

What's priced into BankUnited, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, while the model also indicates BKU is cheap versus peers and shows a small expectations gap. This mixed signal suggests valuation is not clearly supportive or clearly demanding; evidence on fragility is low, not a sign of low business risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, core commercial loans and non-interest-bearing deposits are growing, but total average loans fell sequentially as non-core loans ran off, and the latest average deposit balance was flat sequentially. Credit indicators improved year over year, though non-performing loans rose sequentially in the latest quarter; consecutive earnings misses and a sector headwind add near-term uncertainty.

What BankUnited, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether core lending growth and deposit gains can continue while the overall loan portfolio shifts as planned and credit quality stays sound. Near term, guidance cuts or lower rates are unfavorable risks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the backdrop.