Brown–Forman (BF-B)

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$28.88+1.05%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Brown–Forman’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.71 → 1.71 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income near $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4	It aims for about $1 billion operating income in 2026-Q4.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4	Operating income: $252M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=1.0 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 2, 2026252,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 11be2d8e-cdac-41d1-a5e7-767b98177716. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company reported restructuring charges of $12 million in 2026-Q3, $19 million in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q1, and $16 million in 2025-Q4 related to the initiative announced in January 2025. Management consistently links this initiative to cost improvements and future growth positioning. The trajectory shows persistent focus with ongoing charges reflecting active execution. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin between 25% and 27% in FY27	A supporting condition in Brown–Forman's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% and <=27%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 25% in FY27	Operating margin: 27.66% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=25% and <=27%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 2, 202627.66191 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 11be2d8e-cdac-41d1-a5e7-767b98177716. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4	A primary condition in Brown–Forman's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.93 USD_BILLIONS.	Broken	Revenue falls below $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4	Revenue: $911M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.93 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 2, 2026911,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 11be2d8e-cdac-41d1-a5e7-767b98177716. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $400 million share buyback by end 2025	The company completed a $400 million share buyback in 2025.	Intact	Buyback program not completed by end 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management authorized a $400 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q1 and completed it by December 2025 as confirmed in 2026-Q4. This demonstrates delivery on the capital return commitment within the planned timeframe. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.71

$1.71 → $1.71 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$4.00B

$4.02B → $4.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-26	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-28	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$1.71	$4,016,943,424	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$1.71	$4,016,947,657	16 / 16
2026-08-01	$1.71	$4,016,947,657	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$1.71	$4,016,947,657	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$1.71	$4,016,947,657	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-06	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-07	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-11	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	15 / 16
2026-08-19	$1.71	$4,020,067,918	15 / 16
2026-08-20	$1.71	$4,018,567,918	15 / 16
2026-08-21	$1.71	$4,018,567,918	15 / 16
2026-08-22	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-23	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-24	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-25	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-26	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$1.71	$4,016,151,252	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$1.71	$4,013,742,918	15 / 16
2026-08-30	$1.71	$4,013,742,918	15 / 16
2026-08-31	$1.71	$4,013,742,918	15 / 16
2026-09-01	$1.71	$4,013,742,918	15 / 16
2026-09-02	$1.71	$4,013,298,494	15 / 16
2026-09-03	$1.72	$4,006,090,420	15 / 15
2026-09-04	$1.72	$4,004,266,839	15 / 15
2026-09-05	$1.71	$4,001,781,145	16 / 15
2026-09-06	$1.71	$4,001,781,145	16 / 15
2026-09-07	$1.71	$4,001,781,145	17 / 16
2026-09-08	$1.71	$4,003,616,394	17 / 16
2026-09-09	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-10	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-11	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-12	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-13	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-14	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-15	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-16	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-17	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-18	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-19	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-20	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-21	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-22	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-23	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-24	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-25	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-26	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-27	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-28	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-29	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-09-30	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-01	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-02	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-03	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-04	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-05	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-06	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-07	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-08	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-09	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-10	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-11	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-12	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-13	$1.71	$4,001,844,594	17 / 16
2026-10-14	$1.71	$4,001,841,909	17 / 16
2026-10-15	$1.71	$4,001,841,909	17 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	11	3
2026-06-01	3	13	4
2026-07-01	2	13	4
2026-08-01	2	13	4
2026-09-01	2	13	4
2026-10-01	2	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income near $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin between 25% and 27% in FY27Operating margin: 27.66%
Revenue near $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4Published status: Broken
Complete $400 million share buyback by end 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Brown–Forman outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady dividend growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent management priorities and recent positive developments, despite some mixed signals in execution quality.

What's priced into Brown–Forman

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not overly pessimistic expectations. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market does not foresee significant upside in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on restructuring and maintaining dividend growth. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and while there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, the company operates in a volatile industry.

What Brown–Forman hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its strategic initiatives without cutting guidance, as well as external factors like inflation trends and the overall economic environment affecting consumer staples. A weakening jobs report could pose additional risks.