NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4: FY26 revenue ~$4.0B vs 3.93B target.
Brown-Forman owns strong brands like Jack Daniel's. It aims for about $1 billion operating income in 2026-Q4. The company completed a $400 million share buyback in 2025. Profit margins should stay near 25-27% next year.
Revenue fell 1% to $3.9 billion in 2026-Q4. Operating income dropped 10% to $1 billion. Earnings missed estimates in the latest quarter. Restructuring progress is slow and may hurt growth.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $29. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4
Continue executing the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025 to improve cost structure and support future growth.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company incurred restructuring charges related to the initiative ranging from $12 million in 2026-Q1 to $27 million in 2025-Q4. Operating income declined over the period but management continues to emphasize the restructuring as key to future growth. The trajectory shows persistent focus with charges declining, indicating ongoing delivery.
“The company incurred $19 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”
“The company incurred $19 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”
“The company incurred $16 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”
“The company incurred $12 million in charges related to the strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.”
“The company incurred $27 million in restructuring and other charges.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 25% in FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4
Reaffirm the fiscal 2026 guidance of low-single digit organic net sales and operating income decline, with capital expenditures in the $110-$120 million range.
Reaffirmed in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2026 guidance calls for organic net sales decline in the low-single digit range and capital expenditures between $110 million and $120 million. Actual fiscal 2026 revenue declined 1% reported and was flat organically, with capex spending declining from prior year. The trajectory matches management's reiterated guidance.
“We finished the fiscal year ahead of our expectations and reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2026.”
“We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.”
“We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.”
“We are pleased to reaffirm our full-year outlook and remain confident.”
Breaks if: Buyback program not completed by end 2025
Complete the $400 million share repurchase program authorized in October 2025 by December 2025.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $400 million share repurchase program was authorized in 2025-Q2 and completed by December 2025. This capital allocation priority was delivered as planned within the stated timeframe.
“The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”
“The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.”
“The Brown-Forman Board of Directors authorized a $400 million share repurchase program.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic restructuring. The current thesis state is intact, but the company faces challenges in execution and overall performance.
The market currently prices in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with only a slight expectations gap.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed as management continues to prioritize restructuring while reaffirming guidance. However, recent financial performance shows a decline in momentum, which could pose risks in the near term.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to navigate potential recession fears and maintain guidance. Key factors include the impact of inflation on the sector and the company's execution on restructuring initiatives.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BF-B's performance will depend on its management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced a strategic restructuring initiative. This supports its independence and strategic direction. However, the latest earnings report showed a significant miss. Leadership changes could impact future strategy and execution.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
