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Track BETA free→Beta Technologies, Inc. (BETA)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$19.00+4.91%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that BETA's dominant position in the eVTOL integration pilot program supports growth. Revenue growth is expected to improve due to this strong market position. BETA trades at a low valuation compared to peers, which suggests it looks cheap. The risk is that if BETA cuts guidance, the stock may drop significantly. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $4.33B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-09-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.00. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$33.00
Range $33.00 – $33.00
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for BETA right now, so treat our $33 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $29–$38. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-47%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$33.00
range $33.00 – $33.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $33.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
137.6xP/S · peer median 3.5x
Looks more expensive than peers.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2463).
87th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +19.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.63 → $-0.51 (+19.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$370.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$765.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,307.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. BETA holds a dominant position in the eVTOL integration pilot program. This position supports its revenue growth objective. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for Q2 revenue to confirm growth trajectory
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth supports the target of $39M to $43M for 2026. Investors look for consistent growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported above $10.13M, showing continued growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $10.13M, indicating growth may be slowing.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-291mo agoYahoo! Finance
Dominant position supports revenue growth objective.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting BETA and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BETA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BETA cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping BETA and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits BETA and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-121mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, BETA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it will hold a conference call on May 12, 2026 to discuss its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.