KE HOLDINGS INC (BEKE)

NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29

$17.71+1.66%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge KE HOLDINGS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.54 → 8.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	20.79BAs of 2026-09-30
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.721As of 2026-09-30
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	21.82B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	1.871
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	87.53B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	7.601
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	90.66B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	8.644

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strengthen competitive position in real estate services	A supporting condition in KE HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is maintain leading market share.	Intact	loses significant market share	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain record profit margins	KE Holdings is seeing strong profit margins, which are currently at record levels.	Under Pressure	falls below 12%	Net margin: 10.69% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 24, 202610.688413 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth for FY26	A primary condition in KE HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=86.3 billion.	Intact	falls below 80 billion	Revenue: CNY 24.47B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=86.3 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 24, 202624,470,196,141 CNY · source valueLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.64

$7.89 → $8.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$90.66B

$92.98B → $90.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.89	$92,980,002,268	10 / 18
2026-07-25	$7.89	$92,980,002,268	10 / 18
2026-07-26	$7.89	$92,980,002,268	10 / 18
2026-07-27	$7.87	$92,693,933,728	10 / 18
2026-07-28	$7.87	$92,693,933,728	10 / 18
2026-07-29	$7.87	$92,693,933,728	10 / 18
2026-07-30	$7.88	$92,775,668,866	10 / 18
2026-07-31	$7.88	$92,775,668,866	10 / 18
2026-08-01	$7.88	$92,775,668,866	10 / 18
2026-08-02	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-03	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-04	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-05	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-06	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-07	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-08	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-09	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-10	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-11	$7.61	$93,464,026,420	16 / 25
2026-08-12	$7.61	$93,464,026,420	16 / 25
2026-08-13	$7.61	$93,464,026,420	16 / 25
2026-08-14	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-15	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-16	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-17	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-18	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-19	$7.86	$93,008,299,643	10 / 18
2026-08-20	$7.89	$93,312,312,338	10 / 18
2026-08-21	$7.92	$93,564,285,294	10 / 18
2026-08-22	$8.08	$92,880,792,883	10 / 18
2026-08-23	$8.08	$92,880,792,883	10 / 18
2026-08-24	$8.13	$92,964,473,705	10 / 18
2026-08-25	$8.13	$92,964,473,705	10 / 18
2026-08-26	$8.41	$91,008,763,659	10 / 18
2026-08-27	$8.41	$91,008,763,659	10 / 18
2026-08-28	$8.41	$91,008,763,659	10 / 18
2026-08-29	$8.46	$90,945,797,609	10 / 18
2026-08-30	$8.46	$90,945,797,609	10 / 18
2026-08-31	$8.46	$90,945,797,609	10 / 18
2026-09-01	$8.44	$90,860,310,889	10 / 18
2026-09-02	$8.46	$91,068,425,317	10 / 18
2026-09-03	$8.56	$91,001,094,178	10 / 18
2026-09-04	$8.56	$91,007,215,191	10 / 18
2026-09-05	$8.56	$91,007,215,191	10 / 18
2026-09-06	$8.56	$91,007,210,860	10 / 18
2026-09-07	$8.56	$91,007,210,860	10 / 18
2026-09-08	$8.62	$91,197,032,246	10 / 18
2026-09-09	$8.62	$91,209,281,679	10 / 18
2026-09-10	$8.64	$91,196,411,814	10 / 18
2026-09-11	$8.64	$91,214,783,372	10 / 18
2026-09-12	$8.65	$91,294,393,455	10 / 18
2026-09-13	$8.65	$91,294,393,455	10 / 18
2026-09-14	$8.65	$91,294,393,455	10 / 18
2026-09-15	$8.64	$91,220,907,224	10 / 18
2026-09-16	$8.64	$91,208,659,519	10 / 18
2026-09-17	$8.64	$91,171,916,404	10 / 18
2026-09-18	$8.65	$91,294,393,455	10 / 18
2026-09-19	$8.65	$91,239,278,782	10 / 18
2026-09-20	$8.65	$91,239,278,782	10 / 18
2026-09-21	$8.53	$89,994,581,352	10 / 18
2026-09-22	$8.55	$90,196,703,986	10 / 18
2026-09-23	$8.55	$90,250,940,637	10 / 18
2026-09-24	$8.56	$90,317,848,735	10 / 18
2026-09-25	$8.53	$90,035,583,683	10 / 18
2026-09-26	$8.54	$90,108,426,006	10 / 18
2026-09-27	$8.54	$90,108,426,006	10 / 18
2026-09-28	$8.54	$90,109,402,459	10 / 18
2026-09-29	$8.54	$90,153,862,325	10 / 18
2026-09-30	$8.55	$90,223,096,015	10 / 18
2026-10-01	$8.55	$90,226,796,441	10 / 18
2026-10-02	$8.53	$90,075,234,812	10 / 18
2026-10-03	$8.53	$90,089,477,230	10 / 18
2026-10-04	$8.53	$90,089,477,230	10 / 18
2026-10-05	$8.53	$90,089,118,931	10 / 18
2026-10-06	$8.53	$90,089,118,931	10 / 18
2026-10-07	$8.54	$90,198,002,577	10 / 18
2026-10-08	$8.54	$90,179,855,302	10 / 18
2026-10-09	$8.54	$90,161,708,028	10 / 18
2026-10-10	$8.57	$90,052,370,079	9 / 18
2026-10-11	$8.57	$90,052,370,079	9 / 18
2026-10-12	$8.57	$90,039,297,470	9 / 18
2026-10-13	$8.59	$90,189,198,409	9 / 18
2026-10-14	$8.59	$90,251,072,858	9 / 18
2026-10-15	$8.59	$90,250,624,144	9 / 18
2026-10-16	$8.59	$90,256,008,705	9 / 18
2026-10-17	$8.59	$90,256,008,705	9 / 18
2026-10-18	$8.60	$90,280,176,869	9 / 18
2026-10-19	$8.60	$90,280,176,869	9 / 18
2026-10-20	$8.60	$90,280,176,869	9 / 18
2026-10-21	$8.61	$90,358,723,402	9 / 18
2026-10-22	$8.61	$90,437,269,935	9 / 18
2026-10-23	$8.62	$90,467,480,141	9 / 18
2026-10-24	$8.61	$90,437,269,935	9 / 18
2026-10-25	$8.61	$90,437,269,935	9 / 18
2026-10-26	$8.61	$90,437,269,935	9 / 18
2026-10-27	$8.61	$90,437,269,935	9 / 18
2026-10-28	$8.64	$90,664,717,834	9 / 18
2026-10-29	$8.64	$90,664,717,834	9 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	4
2026-06-01	23	1
2026-07-01	20	1
2026-08-01	22	1
2026-09-01	22	1
2026-10-01	21	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strengthen competitive position in real estate servicesQualitative condition
Maintain record profit marginsPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth for FY26Revenue: CNY 24.47B

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

KE HOLDINGS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate exposure with an uncertain long-term thesis, rather than a clearly established durable growth or recovery story. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to judge it.

What's priced into KE HOLDINGS INC

The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of what market expectations assume, so whether BEKE is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. No pricing fragility gates fired, but that alone does not establish that expectations are undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term earnings risk is described as low, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic and industry peers have been missing lately. The risk label recently rose from moderate to elevated, while the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.

What KE HOLDINGS INC hinges on

A favorable scenario would be Fed rate cuts from the current 3.88% and continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers CBRE, JLL, and CSGP. If those companies miss or guide lower, the sector support could fade; evidence about BEKE’s own forward operating drivers is limited.