Banner Corporation (BANR)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$70.28+0.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Banner Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.66 → 6.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	195.52M
EPS	—	1.523
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	193.47M
EPS	—	1.58
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	723.17M
EPS	—	5.923
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	797.45M
EPS	—	6.637

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.52 per share	The company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.52.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.48 quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.52 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9fd7f9fc-c523-4cab-968d-dc624cfe852d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of at least $5.64 in FY 2026	A primary condition in Banner Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.64 USD per share.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $5.00 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.64 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.43 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9fd7f9fc-c523-4cab-968d-dc624cfe852d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain strong operating cash flow near $110 million quarterly	Operating cash flow is strong, rising to $109.8 million in Q1 2026.	Broken	Operating cash flow falls below $90 million quarterly	Cash from operations: $39.034M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=109 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202639,034,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 6% YoY	A primary condition in Banner Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 1.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.211931 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9fd7f9fc-c523-4cab-968d-dc624cfe852d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.64

$6.63 → $6.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$6.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$6.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$6.59	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$6.59	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$6.68	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$6.68	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$6.68	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	$6.68	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$6.60	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$6.70	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$6.70	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$6.70	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$6.70	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-10	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-11	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-12	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$6.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$6.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-07	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-08	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-09	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-10	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$6.63	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$6.65	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$6.67	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$6.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$6.66	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$6.64	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	4
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	3	4
2026-10-01	3	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationOct 23

$76.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 1 · prior Sep 14

$74.00 → $71.00-4.1%

$0$41.80$83.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.52 per shareDividend per share: $0.52 per share
Achieve EPS of at least $5.64 in FY 2026Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share
Sustain strong operating cash flow near $110 million quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Maintain revenue growth near 6% YoYRevenue growth: 1.21%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Banner Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a measured growth and merger-integration thesis, rather than a turnaround supported by clear evidence of a break in performance. The multi-year view is on watch: earnings quality is robust, but management is rated volatile and recent results are neutral.

What's priced into Banner Corporation

The valuation evidence says BANR is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is small and the priced-in signal is tagged justified. This suggests modest expectations relative to peers rather than a fragile setup, though the evidence does not establish how much future merger benefit is already assumed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, loan balances and originations show growth, but some of the increase reflects Pacific Financial, and merger costs remain. Core deposits have stayed near 89% to 90% of deposits, while the latest earnings miss and broader industry misses add caution; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What Banner Corporation hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on completing integration and turning the acquisition into lasting benefits without weakening the deposit base. A guidance cut or rate cuts would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.