Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$78.32-0.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Booz Allen Hamilton’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.74 → 6.74 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.82B
EPS	—	1.466
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	11.39B
EPS	—	6.418
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	11.92B
EPS	—	6.737

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of $6.00 - $6.35 for fiscal year 2027	Adjusted EPS is targeted at $6.00 to $6.35, maintaining earnings growth.	Intact	adjusted EPS falls below $6.00 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of $825 - $925 million for fiscal year 2027	Free cash flow is expected between $825 million and $925 million, showing strong cash generation.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $825 million in FY27	Free cash flow: $261M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: between $825M and $925M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026261,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of $11.2 - $11.7 billion for fiscal year 2027	Booz Allen Hamilton aims to stabilize revenue near $11.45 billion in fiscal 2027.	Intact	revenue falls below $11.2 billion in FY27	Revenue: $2.778B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $11.2B and $11.7B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 20262,778,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 51fb3055-2d05-43ba-856c-f2e1b82a02b2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $720 million acquisition and integrate Ultra I&C Mission Solutions	The $720 million acquisition of Ultra I&C Mission Solutions should boost defense tech revenue with strong double-digit growth.	Intact	acquisition fails to close or integration delays beyond FY27 Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The acquisition closed during the quarter, but the supplied financials do not report Ultra Mission Solutions revenue or integration results separately. The transaction is complete; substantive financial delivery on the integration priority is not yet demonstrated in these inputs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.74

$6.85 → $6.74 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$11.92B

$11.87B → $11.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.85	$11,866,926,600	11 / 11
2026-07-25	$6.81	$11,861,182,710	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$6.81	$11,861,182,710	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$6.77	$11,875,668,210	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$6.77	$11,875,668,210	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$6.73	$11,863,950,790	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$6.73	$11,863,950,790	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$6.71	$11,852,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$6.72	$11,860,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$6.72	$11,860,619,550	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$6.71	$11,852,579,410	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$6.72	$11,860,602,519	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$6.72	$11,860,602,519	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$6.72	$11,860,602,519	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$6.72	$11,860,602,519	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$6.72	$11,860,602,519	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$6.73	$11,872,602,885	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.72	$11,875,402,663	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$6.72	$11,875,426,340	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$6.74	$11,898,440,134	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$6.73	$11,908,593,516	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$6.73	$11,926,307,801	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$6.73	$11,926,307,801	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$6.73	$11,937,450,659	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$6.74	$11,947,313,210	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$6.74	$11,947,313,210	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$6.74	$11,947,313,210	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$6.74	$11,947,313,210	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$6.73	$11,955,130,353	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$6.73	$11,955,130,353	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$6.73	$11,955,130,353	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$6.73	$11,955,130,353	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$6.73	$11,955,130,353	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$6.73	$11,955,162,446	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$6.73	$11,955,162,446	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$6.73	$11,955,162,446	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$6.72	$11,952,091,017	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$6.72	$11,952,091,017	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$6.72	$11,952,091,017	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$6.74	$11,919,322,653	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	3
2026-06-01	3	9	3
2026-07-01	3	8	3
2026-08-01	3	8	3
2026-09-01	3	9	3
2026-10-01	4	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 8 · prior Jul 10

$70.00 → $85.00+21.4%

JefferiesOct 7 · prior Sep 1

$80.00 → $75.00-6.3%

$0$46.75$93.50

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted diluted EPS of $6.00 - $6.35 for fiscal year 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Generate free cash flow of $825 - $925 million for fiscal year 2027Free cash flow: $261M
Achieve revenue of $11.2 - $11.7 billion for fiscal year 2027Revenue: $2.778B
Complete $720 million acquisition and integrate Ultra I&C Mission SolutionsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Booz Allen Hamilton outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a government-services business with a mixed growth and execution profile, rather than a clear, steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with demand indicators supporting its National Security focus, but management execution and earnings quality remain volatile and fragile.

What's priced into Booz Allen Hamilton

BAH is cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a 49% premium to peers and an expectations gap of -0.12, so the signals are mixed. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified and fragility as low, meaning weak execution appears partly reflected, but not a broader stack of risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October 23 earnings beat is positive, but recent momentum and quality measures fell after fresh earnings, and revenue declined across the reported quarters. Backlog rose from $39 billion to $41 billion and book-to-bill was 1.5x in both quarters, supporting demand, while delivery on fiscal 2027 guidance and scaling cyber and defense products remain less certain.

What Booz Allen Hamilton hinges on

The 1-3 year thesis hinges on whether BAH meets its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook and turns stated cyber and defense product priorities into measurable delivery. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from sector peers EFX, FCN, and HURN would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.