AZUL SA (AZUL)

NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29

$4.00+3.63%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AZUL SA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 6, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-16.3% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.33 → 6.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	6.14B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	-0.165
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	22.82B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	2.653
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	25.44B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	6.972

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS growth to about $4.32	Profitability is projected to improve with EPS reaching about $4.32.	Intact	falls below $3.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: BRL -7.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.32. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-7.74 BRL/share · source valueLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable regulatory environment for strategic partnerships	A supporting condition in AZUL SA's published investment case. The stated target is no significant regulatory delays.	Improving	significant regulatory delays occur	Qualitative: Approval received vs no delays Brazil's CADE approved American Airlines' $100m investment in Azul, clearing the regulatory hurdle for the strategic partnership. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to about $22.55 billion	Revenue is expected to grow to about $22.55 billion in FY26.	Intact	falls below $20 billion in FY26	Revenue: BRL 5.092B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22.55 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 20265,091,608,969 BRL · source valueLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 6, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.97

$10.21 → $6.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$25.44B

$23.96B → $25.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-25	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-26	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-27	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-28	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-29	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-30	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-07-31	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-01	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-02	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-03	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-04	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-05	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-06	$10.21	$23,955,944,324	1 / 2
2026-08-07	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-08	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-09	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-10	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-11	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-12	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-13	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-14	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-15	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-16	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-17	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-18	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-19	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-20	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-21	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-22	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-23	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-24	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-25	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-26	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-27	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-28	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-29	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-30	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-08-31	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-09-01	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-09-02	$10.21	$24,363,442,489	1 / 2
2026-09-03	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-04	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-05	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-06	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-07	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-08	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-09	$10.78	$24,390,625,767	1 / 2
2026-09-10	$9.66	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-11	$9.66	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-12	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-13	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-14	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-15	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-16	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-17	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-18	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-19	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-20	$8.24	$24,113,137,987	1 / 2
2026-09-21	$8.20	$24,002,555,086	1 / 2
2026-09-22	$8.15	$23,848,112,302	1 / 3
2026-09-23	$8.16	$23,884,506,674	1 / 3
2026-09-24	$8.19	$23,964,527,633	1 / 3
2026-09-25	$8.20	$23,996,022,763	1 / 3
2026-09-26	$8.21	$24,037,083,081	1 / 3
2026-09-27	$8.22	$24,064,301,094	1 / 3
2026-09-28	$8.27	$24,200,391,161	1 / 3
2026-09-29	$8.33	$24,368,365,187	1 / 3
2026-09-30	$8.31	$24,325,438,491	1 / 3
2026-10-01	$8.28	$24,246,272,955	1 / 3
2026-10-02	$8.30	$24,305,374,927	1 / 3
2026-10-03	$8.31	$24,312,933,758	1 / 3
2026-10-04	$8.31	$24,312,933,758	1 / 3
2026-10-05	$8.31	$24,321,705,735	1 / 3
2026-10-06	$8.31	$24,321,705,735	1 / 3
2026-10-07	$8.31	$24,321,705,735	1 / 3
2026-10-08	$8.30	$18,239,372,708	1 / 3
2026-10-09	$8.30	$18,239,372,708	1 / 3
2026-10-10	$8.30	$18,239,372,708	1 / 3
2026-10-11	$8.30	$18,239,372,708	1 / 3
2026-10-12	$8.30	$18,231,604,722	1 / 3
2026-10-13	$8.30	$18,237,973,071	1 / 3
2026-10-14	$8.32	$18,472,535,716	1 / 3
2026-10-15	$8.31	$18,463,692,274	1 / 3
2026-10-16	$8.32	$18,472,181,978	1 / 3
2026-10-17	$8.32	$18,472,181,978	1 / 3
2026-10-18	$8.32	$18,472,181,978	1 / 3
2026-10-19	$8.32	$18,472,181,978	1 / 3
2026-10-20	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	1 / 3
2026-10-21	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	1 / 4
2026-10-22	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	1 / 4
2026-10-23	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-24	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-25	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-26	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-27	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-28	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4
2026-10-29	$6.97	$25,443,581,764	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	1
2026-06-01	1	1	0
2026-09-01	1	0	0
2026-10-01	1	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 19

$8.10New observation · no comparable prior

$0$4.46$8.91

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS growth to about $4.32Diluted EPS: BRL -7.74 per share
Revenue growth to about $22.55 billionRevenue: BRL 5.092B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AZUL SA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, growth-sensitive airline business, but the evidence is too limited to classify it more precisely. The long-term thesis is currently unclear because there is not enough recent financial history to judge business performance.

What's priced into AZUL SA

The evidence provides no valuation measures or clear account of what the market expects, so valuation cannot be assessed. Recent share-price movement is not enough to establish what expectations are priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings appear uneven: AZUL missed its most recent quarter, and the estimated chance of another miss is 51%. The risk label has recently risen from elevated to high, while broader sector conditions are described as a headwind.

What AZUL SA hinges on

The near-term setup depends partly on whether major airline peers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance, or begin missing and lowering guidance. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% would add pressure because the sector is sensitive to economic growth.