NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflow4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase earnings per share to at least $151.11 in FY26 | A primary condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=151.11 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $140 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $55.81 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=151.11 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 22, 202655.81 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 29, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Net income grew modestly from $2.5B in fiscal 2025 to $2.57B in fiscal 2026, operating profit increased from $3.6B to $3.7B, and diluted EPS rose from $144.87 to $152.55. Management consistently emphasizes disciplined earnings and cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Maintain revenue growth near 8.6% YoY | A primary condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.6% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 5.64% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=8.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 22, 20265.640981 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 29, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. AutoZone opened 175 new stores in 2026-Q3 and 374 stores in fiscal 2026 year-to-date. In fiscal 2025, the company opened 304 new stores. Management consistently emphasizes aggressive store openings to grow market share, and the trajectory is delivering with steady store count increases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Maintain active share repurchase program with at least $1.5B authorized | A supporting condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=$1.5 billion authorized. | Intact | No buyback authorization or suspension of program within next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open at least 82 new stores globally in 2026-Q2 | It opened 82 new stores in 2026-Q2. | Intact | New store openings fall below 60 in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. AutoZone opened 175 new stores in 2026-Q3 and 374 stores in fiscal 2026 year-to-date. In fiscal 2025, the company opened 304 new stores. Management consistently emphasizes aggressive store openings to grow market share, and the trajectory is delivering with steady store count increases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsLatest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 13 recorded
1 raises · 7 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth through store expansion and disciplined cash flow management. The current thesis state is intact, with recent performance holding up well in the industry despite some mixed signals.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with low fragility and no significant risks currently affecting expectations. AutoZone trades at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors expect continued performance in line with its recent history.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued modest growth, as management remains on track with earnings and cash flow goals. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings estimates, especially after a recent miss.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, inflation trends, and the performance of major sector players. A cut in guidance or a rise in inflation could negatively impact sentiment.
Overall, AutoZone's position looks stable for the next 1 to 3 years, but investors should monitor key indicators closely. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.